The fourth quarter of 2025 has been extremely unfavorable for Bitcoin. According to CoinGlass data, the cryptocurrency's return during this period stands at −23.73%, making it the weakest quarter since 2018. There is little time left for recovery, and no signs yet of a sharp market turnaround.
Overview of Bitcoin's Situation in Q4 2025
The current Bitcoin decline is especially noticeable against the backdrop of expectations formed at the beginning of autumn. Despite a historical tendency for growth during this period, the market is showing a significant correction. As a result, Q4 2025 may go down in history as one of the worst quarters for the cryptocurrency in the past seven years.
Eric Trump's Forecasts and Their Discrepancy with Reality
In autumn 2025, Eric Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, expressed confidence in a strong year-end for the crypto market during an interview with the New York Post. He referred to the historical strength of Q4, increased liquidity, and easing financial conditions, expecting an "incredible" outcome. However, the market moved in the opposite direction, and his forecasts sparked skepticism among community members, cementing his reputation as an often inaccurate analyst.
Historical Bitcoin Returns in the Fourth Quarter
The fourth quarter has traditionally been the most favorable time for Bitcoin. The average return during this period exceeded +77%, with a median around +48%. These figures fueled expectations of a "year-end rally" and supported trader optimism. Nevertheless, 2025 broke this trend by showing a significant decline that stands out from the historical pattern.
Impact of Current Events on the Cryptocurrency Market
The negative trend at the end of 2025 intensifies market correction, causing investor skepticism regarding seasonal patterns. Despite this, the situation remains dynamic, and the prospects for further cryptocurrency market development require close monitoring. For miners with a small number of devices in Russia, it is important to understand that current changes are not related to technical issues but reflect general market trends.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin's decline in Q4 2025 affects mining profitability and the overall crypto market economy. Miners should recognize that historical seasonal patterns did not hold this time, and forecasts from well-known figures like Eric Trump did not materialize. This underscores the need for a cautious approach to investments and operational planning amid instability.
What to Do?
- Evaluate current mining capacity and expenses considering reduced profitability.
- Avoid relying on seasonal forecasts and focus on actual market data.
- Stay updated with news and analysis to respond promptly to market changes.
