CryptoQuant has recorded Bitcoin's transition into a bear market phase, which the company's report links to declining demand, according to The Block. As a result, analysts consider several price movement scenarios: in the short term, a drop to $70,000 within three to six months, and by the second half of 2026, a decline to $56,000. These estimates are accompanied by indications of weakening demand from institutional products and large capital.
Analysis of the Current Bitcoin Market Situation
According to CryptoQuant, the bear phase began in mid-November, nearly a month after the largest market liquidation in October. During that single day, traders lost about $20 billion, and since then, demand for Bitcoin has been observed to decline. The report notes that some previous sources of demand have already been exhausted, limiting the potential to support the price.
CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Price Forecasts
CryptoQuant outlines two timing scenarios: short-term pressure that could push the price down to $70,000 within three to six months, and a more prolonged decline to $56,000 by the second half of 2026. The report associates this with weakening demand, including from institutional products and buyers whose purchases previously supported the market. It also emphasizes that observed capital flows have changed the nature of demand.
Impact of Institutional Investors
CryptoQuant highlights changes in ETF dynamics and institutional demand: US Bitcoin ETFs experienced net capital outflows exceeding $2.1 billion in Q4 2025, whereas in the same period in 2024, ETFs recorded inflows over $16 billion. The report also mentions that institutional and long-term holders now occupy a larger market share, altering typical buying and selling cycles. Consequently, the market has become less dependent on short-term retail purchases, affecting volatility and price recovery mechanisms.
Forecasts from Other Analytical Firms
Opinions among major financial institutions vary: Citigroup’s base forecast targets around $143,000 over the next 12 months, while Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 target to $150,000. JPMorgan remains more optimistic, projecting growth to $170,000 within 6–12 months. Asset manager Bitwise suggests the possibility of new all-time highs in 2026, illustrating a wide range of analyst estimates.
Why This Matters
If demand weakens and the price indeed falls, this will directly impact miners’ revenue: a lower price means less revenue per mined Bitcoin, all else equal. Meanwhile, changing capital flows and dominance of long-term holders may make market fluctuations less predictable, complicating income planning and breakeven points. Understanding current demand trends and analyst expectations helps miners assess risks and make more informed decisions about operating their equipment.
What to Do?
- Control operating expenses: review electricity and maintenance costs to reduce mining costs amid price declines.
- Plan liquidity positions: maintain cash reserves or backup capacity to endure low-price periods without forced equipment sales.
- Monitor ETF inflows/outflows and major news: shifts in institutional demand affect price, so timely information helps adjust selling and holding strategies.
- Diversify income approaches: where possible, combine mining with selling part of mined volume at fixed prices or leasing capacity to reduce dependence on spot prices.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Has Bitcoin’s transition to a bear market been confirmed?
CryptoQuant’s report notes that the market has entered a bear phase, which began in mid-November following a major liquidation in October.
2. How realistic is the $56K forecast?
CryptoQuant presents a scenario where the price could drop to $56,000 by the second half of 2026, based on current demand decline and capital flow dynamics. This is one of the possible outcomes reflected in the company’s report.
3. How do major market players differ in their forecasts?
Forecasts vary widely: Citigroup, Standard Chartered, and JPMorgan offer different price targets ranging from cautious to optimistic, while Bitwise points to the chance of new highs. This spread indicates no consensus on timing or scale of price recovery.
