Analyst forecasts indicate an increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty at the next adjustment: the expected value is 149.80 trillion, potentially taking effect on December 11, 2025. This rise is compared to the current 149.30 trillion and occurs amid low hashprice levels, complicating miners' operations.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Growth Forecast
The anticipated difficulty increase to 149.80 trillion results from the network's automatic recalculation, assuming the current hashrate and block discovery speed remain steady. The previous adjustment reduced difficulty from a higher level, resulting in an average block generation time of about 9.97 minutes versus the target 10 minutes, but this did not significantly improve mining economics.
Higher difficulty affects rewards for the same computational power: all else equal, miners need more resources for the same share of rewards. For more details on recent difficulty changes, see our article on December difficulty increase.
Current Hashrate Status and Economic Challenges
The network hashrate currently stands at approximately 38.3 PH/s, above the recent low near 35 PH/s recorded later in November. If this or comparable power levels persist, difficulty adjustments will depend on the dynamics of connected devices and their efficiency.
A key profitability benchmark for the industry is the $40 per PH/s threshold: declines below this increase pressure on miners, especially amid rising electricity costs and Bitcoin price volatility. Details on the recent difficulty drop to 149.3 trillion are available in our review of the difficulty decrease to 149.3 trillion.
Geopolitical Risks and Regulation
The industry faces not only economic difficulties but also political risks. In the U.S., the Department of Homeland Security is investigating Bitmain, which controls about 80% of the global ASIC miner market, examining potential remote access to devices.
Interest intensified following statements by Senator Elizabeth Warren regarding possible use of ASICs for surveillance of strategic facilities. Should restrictions or tariffs on Bitmain products be imposed, this could alter equipment supply and pricing—especially sensitive ahead of the upcoming halving; see also our piece on the profitability decline.
Impact on the Industry and Outlook
The combination of low hashprice, rising difficulty, and geopolitical risks makes miners' position more vulnerable: reduced revenues and risk of equipment disruptions force companies and individual miners to seek optimization paths. Consequently, operating costs and hardware access remain key survival factors.
Small and medium market participants are especially sensitive to changes in the breakeven threshold and ASIC availability; their responses will shape hashrate distribution and the industry's adaptation speed in the near term.
Why This Matters
For miners operating 1–1000 devices, changes in difficulty and hashrate directly affect profitability: increased difficulty means a smaller reward share at the same power, while low hashprice and a $40/PH/s threshold reduce margins. Additionally, risks of supply disruptions due to investigations and potential restrictions increase uncertainty in farm upgrade planning.
Even if your situation remains unchanged immediately, the combination of factors could lead to higher device prices and pressure on profitability, so understanding how these events interact is important.
What to Do?
Focus on short and specific steps: recalculate profitability considering the current $40 per PH/s threshold and your actual electricity rates. This will help identify which machines remain profitable and which require optimization or shutdown.
Check equipment consumption and settings, reduce energy losses, and monitor pool fees; also keep software and firmware updated to maintain efficiency. Finally, account for supply disruption risks when planning major purchases and consider spreading upgrades over time to mitigate shortage risks.
