"Witching day" is a market term for the simultaneous expiration of multiple derivatives, occurring four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. On these days, futures on stock indexes, index options, single-stock options, and index futures options expire simultaneously, which can lead to accelerated position reshuffling.
What Is 'Witching Day' and How Is It Related to Bitcoin?
The term originated when traders compared the exchange chaos on days of mass contract expirations to the folklore "witching hour"—a period of heightened activity and unpredictable events. In actual trading, such moments are often accompanied by automatic closures and sharp price jumps that look like "witchcraft" to unprepared market participants.
Bitcoin increasingly reacts to volatility in traditional financial markets due to growing correlation with global risk assets. At the same time, automatic mechanisms for closing and adjusting hedges can influence trading volumes and the volatility of the leading cryptocurrency, as confirmed by market participants' observations.
Impact of 'Witching Day' on Bitcoin Price in 2025
In 2025, the pattern manifested consistently: Bitcoin’s price fell three times near "witching day"—by 16.6% around the third Friday of March, by 8.5% before and after June, and by 7.9% around September. These declines occurred within a few days around contract expirations and intensified short-term market instability.
Coin Bureau analysts note that "witching day" events amplify existing market tension but are not the root cause. As a result, such days can either accelerate a reversal or temporarily strengthen an already ongoing movement, often accompanied by mass liquidations and high volatility, as described in the mass liquidations article.
Forecasts and Recommendations for Investors
Coin Bureau highlights two basic scenarios: a bullish one, where volatility decreases after option expirations and the price recovers amid favorable fundamental factors, and a bearish one, where profit-taking and hedge reversals lead to sharp declines. Both scenarios depend on existing market conditions, and "witching day" tends to amplify current dynamics rather than create them.
Before the holidays, the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) listed 12 major threats for cryptocurrency investors, further emphasizing increased year-end risks. To understand seasonal market features, it’s useful to compare the current situation with previous December episodes, such as in the Bitcoin market in December review.
Why This Matters
If you mine and earn income in Bitcoin, sharp price fluctuations directly affect your cash flow in rubles, especially when converting mining revenue. Even without trading positions, price changes can alter hardware profitability and payback periods.
Moreover, increased volatility around "witching day" raises the likelihood of sharp moves that can impact liquidity and exchange spreads. Even if you don’t trade, these days are important for planning payments, withdrawals, and transfers.
What to Do?
- Don’t react to every sharp intraday price swing: distinguish short-term noise from long-term changes and avoid mistaking automatic fluctuations for fundamental signals.
- Plan income conversion in advance: if you need rubles for electricity or rent, set a rule to partially fix revenue before expected volatile days.
- Avoid excessive trading and margin positions during high volatility: profit-taking and hedge reversals can quickly lead to losses on these days.
- Prepare a reserve to cover operational expenses: ensure you have a buffer in case of short-term revenue drops to avoid shutting down farms at a bad time.
- Follow regulator news and recommendations: NASAA’s listed threats and analyst advice help better assess risks before the holidays.
