Bitcoin’s advance toward $93,000 has stalled as professional traders adopt a cautious stance and the market’s attention shifts to gold’s rally, Federal Reserve policy and broader US macroeconomics. Pro traders are avoiding risk and paying premiums to protect against downside moves, a theme visible across derivatives metrics. At the same time, Bitcoin rose 1.5% after a retest of the $86,000 level on Sunday, reflecting short-term buying amid lingering macro uncertainty.
Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Cools
Professional traders have pulled back from leveraged bullish bets, leaving Bitcoin’s push for $93,000 stalled. Market commentary points to a focus on gold’s historic rally and incoming US macro events as reasons for this caution, rather than purely crypto-specific factors. For additional context on recent price behavior, see the discussion of consolidation in price consolidates.
Market Indicators Reflect Caution
Derivatives metrics underline a guarded market mood. The annualized BTC futures premium (basis rate) stood at 5% on Monday, a level described as barely covering the longer settlement periods of these contracts and far below typical bullish ranges.
Similarly, the BTC options delta skew reached 12% on Monday, showing that put options trade at a premium and that traders prefer protection against downside moves. Overall sentiment has been neutral-to-bearish for the past two weeks, suggesting limited demand for leveraged bullish exposure.
Gold Surges Amid US Debasement Fears
Gold surged to $5,100 for the first time in history, prompting questions about whether a so-called "debasement trade" is accelerating. At the same time, the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) dropped below 97 for the first time in four months, and five-year US Treasury yields surpassed Europe and Japan at 3.8%, all factors shaping investor allocations toward safe havens.
This dynamic helps explain why some capital is moving into gold rather than Bitcoin. For a focused comparison of signals affecting both markets, see the Bitcoin and gold analysis.
Federal Reserve Policy and US Macroeconomics
This week’s top macro catalysts include the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and corporate earnings from major tech companies. Market participants are also watching signs that the Fed may act to stabilize currencies, a theme highlighted by commentary about a potential New York Fed intervention for the yen.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mandate ends in April, and statements from political leaders about the Fed’s future direction have added another layer of policy uncertainty. These developments influence investor risk appetite across asset classes.
Impact of US Government Shutdown
Traders are weighing the risk of a US federal government shutdown by Saturday as one of several near-term catalysts. While the S&P 500 was higher, the shutdown risk contributes to market caution and may influence short-term flows into or out of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Corporate earnings this week could further shape investor decisions, possibly reducing the case for rotating into alternative scarce assets if results surprise to the upside.
Future Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s ability to retake $93,000 depends largely on professional traders regaining conviction and on how macro events play out in the coming days. With derivatives pricing in more downside risk and macro headlines dominating attention, a sustained bullish breakout appears contingent on clearer positive signals from markets or policy decisions.
For more on resistance near key levels, readers may find the piece on why Bitcoin struggles around $90,000 useful: can’t breach $90,000.
Почему это важно
Если вы майните в России и у вас от одного до тысячи устройств, эта новость помогает понять направленность рыночного риска. Деривативные индикаторы — премия фьючерсов 5% и дельта-скид 12% — сигнализируют о том, что профессионалы платят за страховку против падения, а значит краткосрочный риск снижения цены вырос.
Ралли золота до $5,100 и падение DXY ниже 97 означают поток спроса на традиционные убежища; это не обязательно сразу меняет доходность майнинга, но может увеличить волатильность цены биткоина. Также зафиксированы значительные оттоки из криптофондов — $1.7B — что усиливает осторожность институционалов.
В результате реакция рынка может быть быстрой и резкой: даже если фундамент для майнинга не изменится, колебания цены повлияют на выручку и сроки окупаемости ваших устройств.
Что делать?
- Проверьте финансовую подушку: убедитесь, что у вас хватает резервов на покрытие расходов при падении цены.
- Минимизируйте риск левереджа: избегайте маржинальных позиций и заемного хешрейта при повышенной неопределённости.
- Оцените возможность хеджирования части выручки (например, фиксированной продажей), если это соответствует вашей стратегии.
- Следите за показателями деривативов и ключевыми новостями (решение ФРС и отчёты компаний) — они часто задают тон в ближайшие дни.
