Polymarket’s prediction markets show traders broadly bullish on precious metals for 2026, but not chasing extreme moves. At the time of reporting, gold is trading at $5,079.30 per ounce and silver at $113.24 per ounce, levels that align with many contract outcomes. The market uses CME official settlement prices to settle contracts, which focuses expectations on verifiable end points rather than intraday spikes. Taken together, the contracts signal confidence in continued strength while trimming tails on outsized rallies.
Current Market Prices
Gold is changing hands at $5,079.30 per ounce, a price that sits near the levels priced into several Polymarket contracts. Silver is trading at $113.24 per ounce, which also maps onto the market’s range-bound expectations for the near term. For background on recent drivers of these moves, see why prices rose in 2025, which provides context on last year’s dynamics.
Polymarket's Silver Price Predictions
Polymarket runs two silver contracts tied to CME silver futures with different deadlines. For June 2026, traders assign near certainty—roughly 99.6%—to silver reaching $110, while confidence falls sharply for higher thresholds and sits at about 20% for $200. A separate contract that resolves at the end of January 2026 shows much lower odds for large near-term gains, indicating traders expect silver to remain firm but not spike immediately.
Polymarket's Gold Price Predictions
Gold contracts paint a similar picture at higher absolute levels. The longer-dated June 2026 contract prices $5,000 as nearly certain, while probabilities decline past $5,500. Traders treat the $6,000 level roughly as a coin‑flip zone, and probabilities for gold exceeding $6,500 are very low. Shorter-dated January 2026 gold contracts cluster around a mid-range threshold, and trading interest in that contract is around $1.35 million, reflecting active but disciplined participation.
Market Sentiment and Key Takeaways
Across four active contracts, the crowd is broadly bullish on precious metals but is not pricing in parabolic moves. The design of these markets—relying exclusively on official CME settlement prices—encourages anchoring to verifiable outcomes and reduces the impact of intraday noise. In effect, Polymarket’s probabilities suggest the market believes much of the move to date is reflected in current prices; the remaining debate centers on magnitude rather than direction.
Why this matters
If you run mining equipment in Russia, these Polymarket outcomes explain how traders view the risk-reward for precious metals through January and June 2026. High confidence that silver will be at least $110 and that gold will reach $5,000 implies market participants expect sustained metal prices rather than sudden collapses, which can affect decisions about holding mined metal versus selling. At the same time, low odds for extreme upside mean you should not count on windfall price jumps to cover operating surprises.
What to do?
Keep short action lists simple and focused on preserving margins and optionality. First, monitor CME settlement-based indicators and Polymarket pricing to see if probabilities shift meaningfully before contract deadlines; these prices are the market’s canonical checkpoints and help avoid reacting to intraday volatility. For practical operations, manage electricity and cooling budgets conservatively and stagger equipment upgrades so you are not dependent on a sudden metal-price jump to justify large capital expenses.
Second, set clear sell rules for mined inventory: decide in advance what portion you convert to cash at current prices and what portion you hold, and review those thresholds regularly. Finally, maintain liquidity for short-term costs and avoid leveraging equipment purchases on the expectation of parabolic price moves — Polymarket’s pricing shows traders are confident in strength but not in extreme rallies. For related coverage on silver dynamics, see silver rising in December, and for the role of clearing and margins, see CME margin changes.
