J. Michael Oliver, the creator of the technical method called momentum structural analysis (MSA), says the current precious-metals bull market still has significant upside. Using MSA and momentum-based indicators, he argues gold could rise to at least $8,500 per ounce while silver may move into the hundreds, possibly reaching $300 or more. Oliver also emphasizes that this bull market may unfold in a different, more powerful way than previous cycles.
Who is J. Michael Oliver?
Oliver is a seasoned trader known for a proprietary approach named momentum structural analysis (MSA), which relies on momentum and oscillators to spot market moves. MSA is central to his public forecasts and to how he times potential breakouts and accelerations. His commentary combines technical patterns with historical comparisons to past bull markets.
Gold Price Predictions
Oliver points to historical precedent: in two prior bull markets gold rose eightfold, while in the current cycle it has increased about fourfold so far. From that perspective, if gold simply matches the percentage gains of earlier peaks, Oliver concludes a path to $8,500 per ounce follows. He frames this target as what would happen if the market repeats past magnitude rather than as an absolute certainty.
Silver Price Predictions
Oliver expects silver to catch up to gold rapidly and in a pronounced fashion, describing the potential move as "horrifically fast and dimensional." He notes that the gold–silver price relation was very low, around 1%, and that a rise toward 6.5% would imply a much higher silver price. Based on this dynamic, Oliver says silver could trade in the low hundreds and possibly reach $300 to $500 per ounce in the coming months.
Comparison with Other Analysts
Some of Oliver's conclusions echo forecasts from other commentators: for example, Jim Rickards has projected substantially higher targets for both metals, and observers have noted similarities between their views. For further perspective on Rickards' outlook, see the Jim Rickards forecast. Additional expert forecasts can provide contrasting assumptions and timing; compare Oliver's approach with the Avi Gilburt forecast to see different methods and targets.
FAQ
What does J. Michael Oliver believe about the current precious metals market?
Oliver believes the upcoming bull market for gold and silver will be distinct and that many traders are underestimating the potential upside. He warns that profit-taking too early could miss significant further gains if past-percentage moves repeat.
How does Oliver compare the current gold price to previous bull markets?
He notes that in earlier bull markets gold rose eightfold, while in the present cycle it has risen about fourfold to date. From that comparison he derives the view that matching past percentage increases would take gold to roughly $8,500 per ounce.
What are Oliver’s price predictions for gold and silver?
Oliver estimates gold could reach at least $8,500 per ounce if it follows historical percentage moves, and he expects silver to move into the hundreds, with $300 to $500 per ounce cited as possible in the coming months. He bases these targets on MSA signals and the evolving gold–silver relationship.
How do Oliver’s views align with other analysts?
Oliver's price outlook is noted as broadly similar to some other analysts who foresee large upside for precious metals, including forecasts that place gold and silver at substantially higher price levels. He and others differ in methods and specific targets, but they share a theme of potential major rallies.
Why this matters
For miners running from a single rig to a modest farm, large price targets for gold and silver can affect market sentiment and trading flows even if they don't change day-to-day mining operations. Higher nominal targets tend to alter how traders set profit-taking and holding strategies, which in turn can influence liquidity and short-term price swings that miners may encounter when selling metal or converting holdings.
At the same time, forecasts alone do not change production costs or local regulations, so miners should treat such projections as one input among many when planning cash flow and inventory decisions. Oliver's emphasis on momentum and structural relationships suggests monitoring price dynamics rather than relying solely on point targets.
What to do?
- Review your selling plan: define clear price or percentage targets for taking profits and avoid ad hoc decisions driven by headlines.
- Monitor price relationships and momentum signals: watch how silver tracks gold and note sharp changes that could precede fast moves.
- Manage operating costs: keep electricity and maintenance under control so you can remain viable during volatility.
- Keep position sizing sensible: if you hold metal or fiat proceeds, avoid overconcentration and keep reserves for running equipment.
- Follow multiple viewpoints: compare technical approaches like MSA with other analyses to form a balanced view before acting.
