Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that silver is trading at historically rare extremes and may reach a multiyear high in 2026 if history repeats. His comments followed long-term charts showing the metal extended toward the upper bounds of a rising multi-decade trend channel, levels that in the past preceded major turning points. This article summarizes McGlone’s observations and what they mean for miners and small operators.
Silver's Potential Peak in 2026
McGlone pointed to repeated historical instances where large deviations from the long-term trend led to extended peaks or long consolidations, and he suggested the current extension could mark a similar inflection. The underlying chart showed prior peaks aligning with the upper statistical bands of the trend channel, implying that an approaching peak is consistent with those past patterns. While the chart does not predict timing with certainty, McGlone concluded that silver may set a multiyear high in 2026 if history is a guide.
Silver as a Three-Sigma Asset
Observers have described silver as a “three-sigma asset,” meaning its price sits at statistically rare levels relative to its historical distribution. Such three-sigma readings typically indicate extreme deviations from long-run norms, conditions that have in prior cycles signalled speculative excess or decisive market turns. In this case, the three-sigma characterization reinforces the view that silver’s current position is unusually stretched within its long-term cycle.
Silver vs. S&P 500 Valuation
McGlone highlighted a simple cross-asset comparison: the S&P 500 measured in ounces of silver is near lows not seen since 2013, with about 75 ounces equalling the S&P 500 on the referenced date. That ratio emphasizes silver’s relative strength versus equities rather than focusing only on nominal silver prices, and it can signal shifts between equity leadership and hard-asset interest. For readers interested in other market forecasts and related commentary, see the Kiyosaki forecast and the Schiff prediction, which discuss parallel bullish views on silver.
Silver's Premium to 60-Month Moving Average
Another metric McGlone highlighted is silver’s premium to its 60-month moving average, which he noted is about 3.2 times that average and the highest level since the Hunt brothers’ 1979 episode. Historically, such large premiums relative to long-term averages have coincided with major peaks or extended corrections in hard-asset markets. This context frames the present pricing as unusually stretched and worth watching for longer-term positioners.
Why this matters
For miners operating from a single rig to several hundred devices in Russia, these observations matter primarily for market sentiment and longer-term planning rather than day-to-day operations. A multiyear peak would influence selling pressure, equipment replacement timing, and when to lock in profits, while three-sigma readings signal elevated odds of a major market phase change. At the same time, immediate mining costs, local power issues, and hardware reliability remain the main drivers of your daily profitability, even if broader market extremes affect sentiment.
What to do?
- Review position sizing and consider staged profit-taking if you hold significant silver exposure or physical metal, rather than selling all at once.
- Keep operating costs under control: monitor electricity and hardware efficiency to protect margins if price volatility increases.
- Maintain a short watchlist of liquidity needs and tax or reporting deadlines so you can act if a multiyear peak creates a selling opportunity.
- Follow trusted market updates and charts that track long-term metrics (trend channels, moving averages, and cross-asset ratios) to avoid reactive decisions.
- Prepare for higher volatility: secure spare parts and maintain conservative cash buffers to weather price swings without forced asset sales.
FAQ
Q: Why does Mike McGlone believe silver could reach a multiyear high in 2026? A: McGlone observed that silver’s recent price action mirrors past statistical extremes inside a long-term rising trend channel, and historically such extensions preceded major peaks and multi-year turning points.
Q: What does the term “three-sigma asset” imply for silver investors? A: It means silver’s price is at statistically rare levels relative to its historical distribution, a situation that has often coincided with speculative excess and elevated reversal risk.
Q: How does silver’s valuation versus the S&P 500 affect the outlook? A: Measured in ounces of silver, the S&P 500 ratio is at its lowest since 2013 (about 75 ounces), highlighting silver’s relative outperformance versus equities and a potential shift between asset classes.
Q: Why is silver’s premium to its 60-month moving average significant? A: At roughly a 3.2x premium — the highest since the Hunt brothers’ 1979 episode — the metric indicates silver is trading well above its long-term trend, which has historically marked decisive peaks for long-term investors.
