CryptoQuant CEO Ju Ki-young published a detailed clarification on X in December 2024 about the firm's Bitcoin on-chain indicators. He confirmed these metrics retain substantial validity for identifying major market movements, while acknowledging clear limits in capturing short-term volatility. This discussion has renewed attention as institutional interest grows into 2025 and professional users increasingly rely on objective blockchain signals.
What Are Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators and How Do They Work?
On-chain indicators are metrics taken directly from Bitcoin’s public ledger that quantify network activity and asset flows. They include measures of transaction volumes, wallet movements, mining behavior and other ledger-based signals that reflect genuine economic activity rather than market chatter. Because these metrics come from the blockchain itself, analysts use them to gauge structural trends and shifts in accumulation or distribution over extended periods.
- Transaction and volume metrics that show how much value moves across the network.
- Wallet and exchange flow indicators that reveal accumulation or selling pressure.
- Miner and supply-based metrics that indicate changes in circulating supply dynamics.
Ju Ki-young’s Key Findings on Long-Term Predictive Accuracy
Ju Ki-young highlighted that on-chain indicators have correctly anticipated substantial price moves in past cycles, noting they predicted Bitcoin’s approximately 600% appreciation during earlier bull markets. He pointed to specific on-chain signals that tended to precede regime changes, demonstrating the capacity of these metrics to capture shifts in adoption and investor behavior. Historical examples include both valuation and flow-based indicators that lined up before major recoveries.
- The MVRV Z-Score accurately signaled major market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
- Exchange outflows consistently preceded significant price rallies across Bitcoin’s history.
- These patterns suggest on-chain metrics reflect long-term adoption and accumulation rather than short-term noise.
Why On-Chain Indicators Miss Short-Term Price Moves
Ju explicitly acknowledges that on-chain indicators often miss short-term price swings of around 30%, because immediate market moves are frequently driven by news, liquidity shifts or technical trading that blockchain data does not record in real time. On-chain metrics register gradual shifts in holdings and flows, so they are less sensitive to sudden sentiment-driven events. For practical trading, this limitation means on-chain signals should be combined with price-based indicators.
- Short-term fluctuations (~30%) commonly come from news and liquidity changes, not on-chain shifts.
- Block-space and ledger updates lag real-time market reactions, limiting minute-to-minute predictive power.
- Combining on-chain metrics with technical tools helps time entries and exits while retaining long-term conviction.
Institutional Adoption and the Role of CryptoQuant in 2025
CryptoQuant has developed proprietary indicators that institutional clients use when making allocation decisions, and modern analytics now process petabytes of blockchain data with machine learning to generate advanced signals. The firm’s feeds and models are part of the toolkit larger investors use to assess accumulation by corporate wallets and other on-chain signs of regime change. Exchange net flows and long-term supply metrics have been among the most-watched inputs for professional users.
Exchange net flows showed substantial accumulation by known corporate wallets before major price movements, and the percentage of Bitcoin supply held long-term reached record highs, indicating stronger holder conviction. For additional context on corporate and whale accumulation patterns, see whales mass buying as analyzed by CryptoQuant, and how on-chain flows relate to price forecasts in on-chain flows forecast.
Expert View: Why On-Chain Data Matters for Investors
Market strategist Dr. Elena Rodriguez summarizes the edge of blockchain analytics: "Blockchain data offers unprecedented transparency into asset flows. When whales accumulate during price declines or miners reduce selling pressure, these actions create measurable on-chain signatures." Her point underscores that these measurable signatures help seasoned investors separate durable signals from market noise. Institutional investors increasingly rely on such objective metrics to build confidence during volatile periods.
Почему это важно
Если вы майните в России и у вас от одного до тысячи устройств, понимание разницы между долгосрочными ончейн-сигналами и краткосрочной волатильностью поможет принимать практические решения по продаже или хранению вырученных биткоинов. Ончейн-метрики показывают, когда крупные игроки аккумулируют, а технические шумы часто приводят к резким, но кратковременным колебаниям цен.
Даже если сигнал не изменит ежедневную работу фермы, он даёт основание держать монеты при подтверждённом накоплении инситуциональных кошельков и при росте доли долгосрочного предложения. Это особенно полезно при планировании налоговых и оперативных решений в условиях неопределённости рынка.
Что делать?
Короткие практические шаги для майнера с 1–1000 устройств, ориентированного в РФ. Эти рекомендации не дают финансовых советов, а помогают правильно интерпретировать ончейн-сигналы в повседневной практике.
- Следите за ключевыми ончейн-индикаторами (exchange flows, MVRV Z-Score, доля долгосрочных держателей) для оценки общей тенденции накопления.
- Не принимайте решения только на основе ончейна: используйте технический анализ для тайминга продаж или докупок внутри более коротких окон.
- Если видите признаки институционального накопления и рост долгосрочного предложения, рассмотрите удержание части добытых монет вместо немедленной продажи.
- Используйте проверенные платные или бесплатные платформы аналитики и следите за изменениями в потоках на биржи и с бирж.
- Документируйте действия по налогам и хранению — ончейн-сигналы могут помогать объяснить стратегию при налоговой отчетности или проверках.
Вместе эти шаги помогут сочетать долгосрочную конвекцию, которую подтверждают on-chain-метрики, с оперативным управлением рисками при краткосрочной волатильности.
FAQs
Q: What exactly are Bitcoin on-chain indicators?
A: On-chain indicators are metrics derived from Bitcoin’s blockchain, including transaction volumes, wallet movements, mining activity and network participation, which together measure fundamental network health beyond price action.
Q: Why do on-chain indicators miss short-term price movements?
A: Short-term volatility often stems from news, liquidity shifts or technical trading that do not immediately register on-chain; on-chain metrics better reflect gradual changes in accumulation and adoption.
Q: How accurate are on-chain indicators for long-term predictions?
A: According to Ju Ki-young and historical records, on-chain indicators have signaled major bull-market gains (approximately 600% in past cycles) and flagged bottoms identified by the MVRV Z-Score in 2015, 2018 and 2022.
Q: Should traders use on-chain analysis alone?
A: No — most practitioners combine on-chain fundamentals with technical analysis so that long-term conviction from on-chain data is paired with tools for timing entries and exits.
