In January 2026 the BTC/XAU ratio fell below its long-term 200-2W exponential moving average, a level that in the past aligned with Bitcoin cycle bottoms. At the same time the ratio has moved away from its long-term "Power Law" trend, while gold surged past the record $5,000 mark. Analysts highlighted this combination as a sign that Bitcoin is relatively undervalued versus gold and warned it could face further pressure, with the possibility of BTC dropping below $50,000.
Bitcoin vs. Gold Chart Breaks Historical Trend in 2026
The BTC/XAU pair has already moved under the 200-2W EMA, breaking a technical line that historically coincided with BTC/USD bottoms. That decline accompanied a measurable deviation from Bitcoin’s long-term Power Law curve, a trendline some analysts use to model Bitcoin’s multi-year growth path. The immediate trigger for the relative weakness was gold’s sharp advance above $5,000, which pushed the ratio into its most undervalued readings in recent history.
Key technical points
- BTC/XAU below the 200-2W EMA, a former bottom marker.
- Departure from the Power Law trend, indicating an unusual long-term break.
- Gold’s surge past $5,000 pressured Bitcoin in relative terms.
Market Implications of BTC/XAU Breakdown
A sustained decline in the ratio would weaken a historical signal that often preceded BTC rallies in dollar terms. Some analysts pointed to the risk that Bitcoin’s USD price could fall under $50,000 if the ratio keeps sliding, which would prolong the relative downtrend. At the same time, major firms such as Citi and others warned that gold’s rally could stall later in the year under certain conditions, which would matter for the balance between the two assets.
How the gold market moves next is therefore central: a continued gold advance would keep pressure on BTC/XAU, while a meaningful pullback could relieve some of that pressure and reopen upside paths for Bitcoin. For further background on how Bitcoin has traded against gold through recent volatility, see this Bitcoin vs gold review and related analysis of Bitcoin’s 2026 levels in the Bitcoin charts 2026 piece.
Historical Context of the BTC/XAU Relationship
Historically, the 200-2W EMA on the BTC/XAU ratio lined up with cycle lows in BTC/USD, including a false breakdown in 2022 when the ratio briefly fell below that moving average and then reclaimed it. The current drop represents the first time BTC/XAU has drifted noticeably away from the long-term Power Law curve, a pattern some traders used to gauge extremes of over- and undervaluation. That history is why the recent breach has attracted attention from analysts such as Julius and institutions monitoring macro flows into gold and crypto.
Why it matters (Почему это важно)
If you run mining equipment in Russia, this development matters because it reflects where capital and hedging demand are flowing between Bitcoin and gold. When BTC weakens versus gold, it can signal tougher market conditions for selling mined coins or converting earnings into fiat without higher price slippage. At the same time, gold strength can tighten risk appetite in broader markets, which indirectly affects liquidity and trading conditions you face as a miner.
Even if your operation is small, a pronounced BTC/XAU downtrend can mean larger spreads, slower bids, or delayed buyers when you try to liquidate rewards. Conversely, if gold's rally cools and the ratio reverts, those selling conditions could improve, reducing short-term execution risk for mined BTC.
What to do? (Что делать?)
Below are concise, practical steps for miners with between one and one thousand devices, focused on liquidity and risk management rather than market timing.
- Review cash flow needs: keep a short-term reserve of fiat to avoid forced sales during weak BTC/XAU phases.
- Stagger sell orders: divide mined BTC into smaller sells to reduce price impact if liquidity thins.
- Monitor key signals: watch BTC/XAU relative to the 200-2W EMA and gold price moves above or below $5,000, and follow major bank commentary from firms like Citi and Standard Chartered for macro cues.
- Check operational costs: if electricity or maintenance costs are fixed in fiat, calculate the BTC price level that keeps your breakeven acceptable in case BTC approaches $50,000.
These steps aim to reduce execution risk and keep operations solvent through periods when BTC is underperforming gold. They are practical adjustments rather than trade advice, intended to help you manage receipts from mining while the BTC/XAU picture evolves.
