Bitcoin paired with gold has fallen to around 20 ounces, a level that Cointelegraph and traders call a critical boundary between bull and bear markets. At the same time, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) for the BTC/Gold pair is at 29.5—a value not seen in nearly three years. Analysts are divided: some see signs of a bottom, others warn of further declines and trend loss.
Bitcoin Reaches Critical Support Level Against Gold
The BTC/XAU pair is trading near 20 ounces of gold, which market reviews interpret as a test of key support and a boundary for a market regime change. As a result of the recent decline, Bitcoin's three-year uptrend against gold has been nearly lost, increasing the significance of the current level test. For more on how this ratio has changed over the year, see the article on the BTC to gold ratio.
Analysts See Signs of a Reversal
Renowned trader Michaël van de Poppe noted the formation of a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe and suggested that a price increase in gold terms could occur soon. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI has dropped to 29.5—a level that in past cycles often coincided with long-term bottoms for the pair, as detailed in the article explaining why the weekly RSI fell. This combination of signals leads to mixed interpretations: the daily chart divergence points to a possible rebound, while the weekly indicator shows oversold conditions.
Risks of Support Breakdown
Some authors and social media accounts have warned that losing the 20-ounce mark was previously associated with the start of a new bear market for the BTC/Gold pair. At the same time, other commentators note the loss of the three-year uptrend, increasing the likelihood of a deeper pullback if the breakdown is confirmed. These differing scenarios mean the market's reaction to holding or losing support will be crucial in the coming weeks.
Why This Matters
For miners operating 1–1000 devices, BTC movement in gold terms does not directly affect the physical mining process but impacts operational economics: a price drop in the base currency reduces ruble-denominated profitability when selling coins, and losing the trend increases uncertainty when planning equipment investments. Meanwhile, oversold signals and daily divergences suggest possible short-term opportunities or periods of heightened volatility that should be considered when making decisions.
What to Do?
- Review warehouse and electricity expenses: adjust load and farm operating schedules to reduce risk during price declines.
- Lock in part of your revenue according to a pre-set strategy rather than emotional decisions; diversifying sales lowers the risk of one-time losses.
- Monitor key indicators: the 20-ounce level in BTC/XAU and the weekly RSI at 29.5—these markers may signal a market regime change.
- Study opinions and analyses on the topic: for additional context, the article with a general Bitcoin price forecast is useful, but remember there are no guarantees.
Note, this article is not investment advice; all decisions require independent analysis and risk assessment. Information is sourced from open reviews and analyst comments cited in the original material.
