Crypto analyst MorenoDV says key on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin has moved out of oversold territory, a development that may mark the start of a recovery phase. The central piece of evidence is the NVT Golden Cross indicator, which the analyst reports rebounded sharply from -0.58 to 0.32 after recently touching the lowest level of the current market cycle. While this shift increases the plausibility of a recovery, the analyst emphasizes the move represents a gradual recovery rather than a sudden price surge.
Quick takeaway
The core points to remember are simple and data-driven.
- MorenoDV concludes Bitcoin has exited oversold territory based on on-chain readings.
- The NVT Golden Cross rebounded from -0.58 to 0.32, climbing off a cycle low.
- This pattern suggests a gradual recovery process that warrants patience and confirmation.
What “oversold” means for Bitcoin
In trading, an asset described as “oversold” is considered to have experienced excessive selling that pushed its price below levels justified by typical measures of value. For Bitcoin, exiting oversold territory is significant both technically and psychologically: it implies that intense selling pressure may have eased and that conditions for stabilization are improving. At the same time, leaving oversold status does not guarantee an immediate price rise; it is one indicator among many that market structure may be shifting.
What is the NVT Golden Cross?
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Golden Cross is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the value transacted on its network. MorenoDV highlights this indicator as the primary signal for the current shift because it ties network value to transactional activity, offering a perspective on valuation relative to usage. Extreme readings on the NVT Golden Cross—such as the recent cycle low and subsequent bounce—are interpreted by the analyst as structural signals that can coincide with short-term market bottoms.
The metric change and on-chain evidence
The concrete change MorenoDV reports is the NVT Golden Cross rebounding from -0.58 to 0.32, with the metric having recently reached the lowest point of the current market cycle. A climb from such a cycle low into positive territory is meaningful because it indicates movement away from the extreme that defined recent selling pressure. According to the analyst, this pattern supports the view that the market may be transitioning from a phase dominated by selling into one where stabilization and gradual recovery become possible.
Why this matters for miners in Russia
For a miner operating between one and a thousand devices in Russia, the immediate effect of this signal is likely indirect: on-chain metrics describe market structure, not short-term profitability. Still, a confirmed gradual recovery commonly means longer periods of consolidation and testing of support, which can reduce extreme price volatility and help with planning maintenance or sales of mined coins. If you run rigs, use this signal as context for operational decisions rather than as a trigger for major changes in your setup.
What to do?
On-chain signals provide useful context but are not trade instructions; treat them as one input among several when managing mining operations or holdings. Practical steps include:
- Monitor on-chain confirmations and complementary indicators before changing exposure or selling mined BTC.
- Set clear risk parameters for cashing out mined coins and avoid making decisions based on a single metric.
- Keep operational flexibility: plan for consolidation phases and ensure routine maintenance so rigs can run through gradual recoveries.
- Refer to broader analyses such as the recent recovery analysis to put this signal in context with price action and market behavior.
Risks and limitations of the signal
No indicator guarantees a market bottom or a sustained price rise, and the NVT Golden Cross is no exception; it shows structural tendencies but cannot account for all external shocks. Factors beyond on-chain readings—such as sudden liquidity events or macro developments—can invalidate the signal and lead to renewed selling or extended consolidation. For these reasons, MorenoDV and the publisher stress that this is one data point and recommend using multiple indicators and independent research.
Conclusion and FAQ recap
The exit from oversold territory, supported by the NVT Golden Cross rebound from -0.58 to 0.32 and the metric’s prior cycle low, gives a data-backed reason for cautious optimism about a gradual Bitcoin recovery. This is a measured development rather than a guarantee of rising prices, so miners and investors should seek confirmations and maintain risk controls. For more on how market recoveries unfold and what they mean for investors, see our market recovery guide.
FAQ
What is the NVT Golden Cross indicator? The NVT Golden Cross is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the value transacted on its network, helping assess whether valuation aligns with on-chain usage.
Does exiting oversold territory guarantee a price increase? No. Exiting oversold territory indicates that extreme selling pressure has likely eased, creating better conditions for recovery or stabilization, but it does not ensure an immediate price rise.
How reliable is this indicator for predicting bottoms? While extreme readings on the NVT Golden Cross have coincided with cycle lows in the past and are considered strong signals, no indicator is perfect; it should be used alongside other data and analysis.
Should I invest based solely on this signal? Absolutely not. This signal is one input among many. Conduct your own research, consider your goals and risk tolerance, and look for additional confirmations before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer:The information provided is not trading advice,Bitcoinworld.co.inholds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page.
