Anthony Pompliano believes that the absence of a "crazy" annual Bitcoin rally has reduced the likelihood of a sharp crash in the first quarter of next year. According to him, the cryptocurrency's volatility is currently lower, which decreases the chance of a sudden drop. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $87,436, down 7.39% from the start of the year.
Anthony Pompliano's View on the Current Bitcoin Situation
Pompliano emphasizes that Bitcoin has shown significant growth in recent years: it has increased by 100% over two years and nearly 300% over three years. He notes that the absence of a pronounced "blowoff top" at the end of the year lowers the likelihood of a classic sharp correction. In Pompliano's opinion, the compressed volatility makes a 70–80% drop extremely unlikely under current conditions.
Current Bitcoin Price and Comparison with Forecasts
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $87,436, reflecting price movement this year and a 7.39% decrease since the beginning of the year. Some optimistic forecasts predicting a rise to $250,000 this year did not materialize, which has sparked discussion among holders. According to Pompliano, the lack of a strong annual rally simultaneously explains the disappointment regarding the expected surge and reduces the risk of a sharp correction.
Other Analysts' Forecasts for 2026
Not all market participants share Pompliano's optimism: trading veteran Peter Brandt suggested that the price could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity stated that 2026 might be a "rest year" for Bitcoin, with a possible decline to $65,000. These assessments demonstrate that analysts have varying scenarios for the coming year.
Why This Matters
It is important for miners to understand that reduced volatility lowers the likelihood of sharp and deep price crashes, thereby decreasing the risk of sudden mining profitability loss. At the same time, forecasts of possible levels at $60,000–$65,000 indicate that part of the market still considers scenarios of significant price drops. As a result, miners should take into account both factors: the relative stability of current volatility and existing negative forecasts.
What to Do?
The advice is aimed at miners with anywhere from one to a thousand devices, mining in Russia and making decisions about equipment and budget. First, monitor volatility and price: track key levels and sales volume to respond promptly to sharp changes.
- Plan your budget based on the average price and current electricity costs, rather than optimistic forecasts.
- Maintain a reserve fund to cover operating expenses during price drops to withstand periods of temporarily reduced profitability.
- If you have from dozens to a thousand devices, evaluate the payback of new purchases individually and prioritize energy efficiency of equipment.
Finally, use available monitoring tools and regularly review your plans: even with reduced volatility, the market remains unpredictable, so a simple and clear risk management strategy will help maintain mining profitability under various scenarios.
