On Dec. 18, 2025 Bitcoin traded just north of $85,000 after intraday volatility, and the coin is off 5.5% for the month of December on a returns basis. To gauge current sentiment we looked at three active prediction markets — Myriad, Kalshi and Polymarket — and report volumes and probabilities exactly as shown on those boards.
Quick snapshot: market context (Dec 2025)
Overall, prediction markets in mid‑December are signaling caution rather than exuberance. Bitcoin’s modest pullback for the month and the intraday price near $85,000 frame a market where short‑term conviction has softened and traders are stretching timelines for big targets.
Myriad — $100K vs $69K: mechanics and odds
On Myriad the active wager titled “Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or Dump to $69K?” has recorded 49.4K in USDC volume, and the crowd assigns $100,000 a 57.6% chance while $69,000 sits at 42.4%. That margin gives six figures the edge but is not overwhelming, especially after belief in the $100K outcome slid by 15.3 percentage points over the past week.
The market’s rule is simple and binary: it stays open until bitcoin either taps $100,000 or drops to $69,000 — no extensions, no gray areas. That structure forces bettors to hold convictions until one trigger is met, which helps explain why the spread has tightened as traders adjust positions.
Kalshi — $150K timing: volume and shifting timelines
Kalshi’s market asking “When will Bitcoin hit $150K?” has logged roughly $16.47 million in volume, and the odds show a gradual pullback in near‑term confidence. The most optimistic window—before June 2026—receives 14%, down two points, while tighter windows register lower probabilities: 12% before May 2026 and 8% before April 2026.
Probabilities on Kalshi have steadily trended lower from October into December, which signals that traders are not ruling out $150K but are increasingly expecting it later rather than sooner. The pricing reflects longer timelines more than immediate bullish conviction.
Polymarket — $80K vs $150K: near-term favorite
Polymarket’s wager “Will Bitcoin hit $80K or $150K first?” has attracted nearly $693,000 in volume and shows a lopsided result: $80,000 holds an 87% probability, a confidence boost of 37 percentage points. Traders on Polymarket view $80K as a likely near‑term stop rather than the end of a move toward much higher targets.
That tilt toward $80K as a pit stop contrasts with Kalshi’s stretched timeline for $150K and matches the tighter Myriad margin; together the markets suggest sequential moves rather than a single rapid leap to six figures and beyond. For context on price action and nearby technical levels, see coverage of price resistance near current levels resistance near $87K.
What prediction markets imply for bitcoin’s outlook
Stepping back, the three platforms paint a consistent picture: bettors remain cautiously bullish but have trimmed conviction for fast, large gains. Short‑term bets are defensive, large‑target contracts are priced with longer timelines, and overall confidence has softened rather than collapsed.
In practical terms, markets are not pricing immediate, dramatic upside; they are instead assigning higher odds to nearer, smaller milestones and pushing the timing for very large moves further out on the calendar.
Why this matters (for small and medium miners)
If you run a small mining operation, these market signals matter because they reflect traders’ expectations for near‑term price paths and the likelihood of large rallies. Less conviction for quick upside typically corresponds to a market environment where price jumps are less certain, which affects decisions about holding mined coins versus selling for operational costs.
Even when the signals don’t mandate immediate action, they help set reasonable expectations: shorter‑term targets are more likely to be reached before any rapid run to very large price levels, so planning around modest price moves is prudent.
What to do?
Below are concise, practical steps small‑to‑mid miners can consider when markets look cautious. These are options to weigh, not prescriptions, and should be adapted to your situation and costs.
- Monitor prediction market probabilities and volumes as a sentiment gauge; notable shifts can precede broader market moves.
- Prioritize operational costs: secure power and maintenance budgets so you can ride through periods without relying on high immediate prices.
- Use a defined payout plan for mined coins (e.g., partial sells at set price bands) rather than chasing volatile top‑side expectations.
- Keep liquidity buffers for payouts and unexpected expenses; cautious markets can extend the time between favorable price events.
- Follow related coverage on potential short‑term levels and technical resistance to align sell or hold thresholds — see an analysis of a possible $80K retest retest $80K.
FAQ and key takeaways
What are markets signaling? Prediction markets show cautious bullishness: near‑term targets are preferred and big targets are penciled in later. Which platforms stand out? Myriad gives $100K a narrow edge at 57.6% vs 42.4% for $69K, Kalshi logs heavy volume on $150K timing with lower odds for earlier windows, and Polymarket heavily favors $80K at 87%.
What to watch next: changes in probabilities, spikes in market volume, and decisive price moves that close the binary triggers on individual wagers. These are the data points most likely to change market pricing and trader behavior.
