Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, said he expects dollar liquidity to expand in 2026 and that expansion is essential for Bitcoin to regain momentum after lagging behind gold and tech stocks in 2025. He argues that, despite last year’s relative weakness, Bitcoin should be able to reclaim some market “juice” if monetary conditions loosen. Hayes links the potential recovery to specific macro drivers rather than to Bitcoin-specific fundamentals.
Arthur Hayes' Bitcoin Prediction for 2026
Hayes stated that Bitcoin will likely reach new all-time highs if dollar liquidity expands, a view he repeated when noting the need for broader monetary expansion. He emphasized that dollar liquidity must expand for Bitcoin to “get its groove back,” and added that he believes this expansion will occur in 2026. This outlook frames Bitcoin’s prospects as tied to macro liquidity rather than only to demand for crypto itself.
Hayes contrasted Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance with other assets and used that contrast to illustrate his point about liquidity. For readers who want a wider price context, see the analysis of price dynamics in 2025, which details how different markets moved last year.
Catalysts for Dollar Liquidity Expansion
Hayes pointed to several concrete catalysts that could trigger a “drastic increase” in dollar liquidity, naming the expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet via what he called “money printing.” He also cited looser mortgage rates and greater willingness of commercial banks to lend to US government-backed strategic industries as supporting factors. Taken together, these items form the policy and credit backdrop he sees as necessary for broader liquidity growth.
- Expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet through “money printing.”
- Falling mortgage rates as liquidity loosens.
- Commercial banks increasing lending to US government-backed strategic industries.
2025 Market Performance Overview
Hayes noted that Bitcoin (BTC) declined 14.40% in 2025, while gold soared 44.40% across the year, figures he used to show a divergence between crypto and safe-haven assets. He also highlighted that technology stocks were the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 in 2025, delivering a total return of 24.6%, which was 6.6% higher than the S&P 500 Index’s overall return of 18%. These data points form the empirical basis for his liquidity-centered explanation of last year’s relative moves.
For readers interested in forecasts and broader 2026 views, additional perspectives on the year ahead and altcoin prospects are available in the 2026 price forecast. Comparing multiple forecasts can help separate liquidity-driven scenarios from other market narratives.
Impact of AI on Nasdaq Performance
Hayes argued that the Nasdaq’s resilience in 2025 was related to heavy capital flows into AI-related sectors, saying AI had been “nationalized by both China and America.” He suggested that executive orders and government investment changed market signals so that capital moved aggressively into AI themes regardless of traditional return-on-equity signals. In his view, those policy actions helped technology stocks outperform even while dollar liquidity was lower.
Bitcoin as Monetary Technology
Hayes described Bitcoin as “monetary technology” and argued its value is meaningful only relative to fiat debasement. He added that this dynamic guarantees Bitcoin’s value is greater than zero, and that for Bitcoin to be worth close to 100,000 United States of American Dollars requires continuous fiat monetary debasement. That framing places Bitcoin’s potential price under the umbrella of monetary policy and currency dilution, in his estimation.
Why this matters
For a miner in Russia running between one and a thousand devices, Hayes’s focus on dollar liquidity links macro policy to market opportunities: monetary expansion tends to push investor demand toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. If liquidity loosens and Bitcoin’s market price rises, miners could see improved revenue in local currency terms; however, these outcomes depend on the macro path and are not guaranteed.
At the same time, the 2025 data Hayes cited—Bitcoin down 14.40% while gold jumped 44.40% and tech led with a 24.6% return—shows that asset performance can diverge sharply. That divergence matters for operational planning: revenue swings affect cash flow, hardware replacement timing, and decisions about selling versus holding mined coins.
What to do?
- Monitor macro liquidity signals: keep an eye on central bank balance-sheet moves and lending conditions, since Hayes names these as key catalysts for market changes.
- Review operational costs and power efficiency: prepare budgets that can handle price volatility and consider optimising power use to protect margins.
- Manage coin allocation: decide in advance whether to hold mined BTC or convert to fiat based on your cash needs and risk tolerance rather than reacting to short-term price moves.
- Keep records and compliance ready: maintain clear accounting for mined coins and any trades, which helps with tax and operational planning in a changing market.
