A new market study revealed a systemic crisis in the token launch model: the analysis covered 113 relatively large projects that collectively raised over $1.3 billion. On average, tokens have delivered returns of about 0.96x since launch, indicating most assets are unprofitable. The authors note that traditional metrics and approaches no longer serve as effective price protection. The following sections detail the main findings of the study and offer practical recommendations.
Research Overview
The study compiled data from 113 projects with total fundraising exceeding $1.3 billion, focusing on token performance post-launch. The average return since launch was approximately 0.96x, meaning most tokens have been effectively loss-making for investors. These figures highlight that the market in its current form does not reward new entrants.
Factors Not Affecting Token Success
The authors analyzed common variables previously considered indicators of launch quality and found no consistent link to long-term returns. This applies to both the amount of capital raised and listing status or involvement of well-known funds.
- No correlation between the amount of capital raised and token outcomes.
- Round size, Tier-1 fund participation, and listing status do not influence long-term price dynamics.
- Correlation between social media/Discord follower counts and returns is close to zero.
Token Dynamics After Listing
Most tokens show negative price trends immediately after listing: even with a positive start and high community activity, selling pressure soon dominates. The study notes that projects with real revenue often trade worse than products without a sustainable business model, indicating a distorted market incentive structure.
Impact of Timing on Launch Success
The study places special emphasis on timing: launching a token during an unfavorable market moment almost guarantees failure regardless of project readiness. The authors stress that a timing mistake can negate years of development, and this risk is often underestimated by teams.
Industry Narratives and Their Influence
Analysis shows that industry narratives more frequently determine token price than actual product execution or revenue. As a result, some sectors require significantly higher levels of delivery to break even, and there is no universal formula for success anymore.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The authors acknowledge a turning point in the launch infrastructure: classic approaches to tokenomics, marketing, and liquidity management no longer provide price protection. Survival under current conditions demands different strategies and stricter discipline; otherwise, most new tokens will continue losing value immediately after market entry.
Why This Matters
If you mine with a small or medium-sized rig setup, these findings are important even without a direct link to mining, as they reflect the overall demand structure and investor behavior in the token market. The lack of reliable quality indicators and the strong role of narratives mean liquidity and price movements post-listing can be unpredictable. For miners, this affects decisions on whether to hold coins, sell immediately, or participate in new projects via pools or directly.
What To Do?
Practical tactics for miners with 1–1000 devices should be simple and clear. First, do not rely on hype announcements, round size, or famous investors as safety signals; the study shows these metrics do not correlate with returns.
- Assess timing risk: launching a token at an unfavorable moment greatly increases the likelihood of losses.
- Avoid emotional trading based on narratives and implement rules for profit-taking and loss-cutting at predetermined levels.
- If considering participation in a new token, focus on clear, tangible utility metrics of the project rather than community size on social media.
Additional context on why some tokens decline in price can be found in our TGE 2025 analysis, and for insights on why not all assets rise in a bull cycle, see the article on the altcoin bull cycle. For broader conclusions, the key lessons compiled by analysts are useful.
