Analysis conducted by Ash of Memento Research revealed a sharp decline in token launch performance in 2025. Out of 118 TGEs reviewed, 84.7% are currently trading below their listing price, and the median FDV has fallen by 71%. A similar trend is seen in market capitalization, with the median value down 67%, and only around 15% of projects delivering positive returns to early participants.
What Do the 2025 Token Launch Data Show?
The figures indicate not isolated failures but a broad trend of weak outcomes among new projects. The report considered key metrics reflecting both project valuations and investor interest.
- 84.7% of new tokens trade below their listing price.
- The median FDV decreased by 71% compared to TGE levels.
- Only about 15% of projects generated profits for early investors.
Reasons Behind the Widespread Failures of New Tokens
The report does not attribute the declines to a single cause but highlights several factors that collectively worsen launch outcomes. These factors affect how projects are perceived and their ability to maintain price post-listing.
- Changing market conditions reducing investors' willingness to take risks.
- Decreased interest in speculative investments and increased market participant selectivity.
- Lack of real utility or clear value proposition in many projects.
How Can Investors Avoid Losses?
The data emphasize the need to shift from "hype investing" to systematic project evaluation. There is no simple rule guaranteeing profits, so developing a consistent approach to assessing new tokens is crucial.
- Conduct thorough fundamental analysis: tokenomics, liquidity, and supply distribution.
- Verify the team, roadmap, and feasibility of stated development milestones.
- Assess real token demand: presence of product, users, or sustainable use cases.
- Compare FDV and market capitalization to identify potential dilution pressure.
- Use reliable data sources—platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and Messari—to verify metrics and listing history.
What Are TGE and FDV?
Definition of Token Generation Event (TGE)
TGE is the moment a new token is initially created and distributed, becoming available to investors and the market. This event often coincides with exchange listings and the start of trading.
How FDV Differs from Market Capitalization
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) represents the project’s value assuming all tokens are fully issued. Market capitalization is typically calculated based on circulating supply, so the difference reflects potential future dilution and price pressure.
Why This Matters
If you are a miner holding only hardware and not investing in new tokens, these data may not directly impact your mining operations. However, for those diversifying income or converting some funds into tokens, the high failure rate means increased risk of additional losses.
Market sentiment and the fear index also influence the likelihood of sharp price movements, so monitoring overall market conditions—such as the fear and greed index that reflects current panic or euphoria levels—is advisable.
What to Do? Practical Advice for Miners (1–1000 Devices)
If you mine and invest in tokens simultaneously, it’s wiser to separate capital and make decisions based on risk. Simple rules can reduce the chance of investing in projects with poor prospects and protect your core mining income.
- Keep your main capital in profitable mining assets and avoid risking large sums in new TGEs.
- Before investing, check large wallet distributions and ownership concentration—such data can be found in analytical reports and visualizations, such as Bubblemaps: 23 wallets.
- Set clear risk management rules: maximum portfolio share per new token, stop-loss levels, and holding horizons.
- Document your decisions: record purchase reasons, target prices, and exit criteria to avoid emotional selling during volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a TGE? TGE is the initial creation and distribution of a new token, marking the first time it becomes available to investors and the market.
What does "FDV below listing price" mean? It means the project’s valuation assuming full token issuance is now lower than at listing, indicating a drop in the total projected value since launch.
Should I completely avoid new tokens? No, but data show most projects do not yield profits, so a selective and disciplined investment approach is necessary.
Where can I find data for my own evaluation? Use trusted platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and Messari, along with specialized research reports, to verify metrics and listing histories.
