Markets enter 2026 divided between hopes that fresh liquidity will extend the expansion and warnings that structural weaknesses could trigger a downturn. Prediction markets and major banks provide contrasting probabilities, leaving investors and policymakers to weigh stimulus rhetoric against debt burdens and market froth. This article summarizes the competing views and what they mean for participants who run mining equipment in Russia.
2026 Economic Outlook: Liquidity vs. Recession
Observers have coalesced into camps: those who expect significant liquidity to sustain growth, those who worry liquidity cannot avert a recession, and those who remain undecided. Policy signals, market pricing, and historical comparisons drive these judgments, producing a tug-of-war that will shape markets through the year. Policymakers’ actions and investor responses will determine which narrative gains traction.
The Liquidity Injection Argument
Supporters of a liquidity-led continuation argue that a combination of fiscal and monetary accommodation could prop up activity and risk assets. In that vein, the administration has signalled a willingness to ease financial conditions, including hints at replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a more dovish successor and direct actions such as instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Proponents also point to recent rate easing and talk of further cuts as mechanisms that could amplify liquidity's effect on markets and borrowing costs. Market participants interested in the informational role of wagers can read more about how sentiment is tracked by prediction platforms like prediction markets, which price expectations differently than traditional forecasts.
The Bear Case: Recession Risks
Critics argue that even sizable liquidity may only delay an inevitable downturn if underlying pressures persist. They highlight elevated asset valuations, rising debt burdens, and strains on consumers as factors that could outweigh stimulus, and they warn that policy interventions arriving late may be insufficient to sustain broad activity.
Those concerns connect to broader warnings about credit and systemic strain, which add to the downside case. For readers who follow credit-related signals, warnings about credit stress are a relevant complement to the macro debate and can help frame downside scenarios.
Market Predictions and Probabilities
Market-based and institutional forecasts differ materially on recession odds for 2026. The prediction market Polymarket places the chance of a U.S. recession in 2026 at 21%, while JPMorgan Global Research assigns a higher probability of 35% for a U.S./global downturn that year. Separately, a Kalshi contract prices the odds of a recession beginning in the first quarter at 10%.
These divergent figures reflect different methodologies and participant bases: prediction markets aggregate bettors’ views, while bank research blends indicators and models. The spread between these measures is central to how investors position portfolios and risk assets for the year ahead.
Почему это важно
If you operate mining equipment in Russia, headline macro outcomes matter chiefly through electricity prices, export conditions, and crypto market risk premia. A liquidity-driven year could support risk assets and local crypto prices, while a recession would likely increase volatility and pressure demand for mining rigs and related services.
At the same time, many policy moves that influence U.S. markets have indirect effects on global liquidity and capital flows, which in turn can affect exchange rates and local operational costs. Monitor both market-based odds and institutional forecasts to gauge near-term sentiment.
Что делать?
For miners with anywhere from a single rig to large farms, focus on controllable factors: manage operational costs, maintain flexibility in electricity contracts, and keep reserves for short-term volatility. Reassess investment timing if market-based odds and policy signals move sharply toward the bear case or toward decisive liquidity actions.
Concretely, tighten cost accounting, test contingency plans for lower crypto prices, and follow both prediction markets and institutional updates to stay informed. Also track central bank cues and official programs that could change financing or mortgage markets, since those channels can alter broader liquidity conditions quickly; see coverage of Fed rate priorities for related signals.
