Fundstrat Global Advisors shows a split in Bitcoin forecasts: Tom Lee expects a bullish 2026 driven by the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and a softer Federal Reserve policy. He anticipates Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in January 2026, focusing on large investors with a small crypto allocation in their portfolios. Meanwhile, Sean Farrell envisions a different path — allowing for a Bitcoin drop to $60K in the first half of 2025 and drawing conclusions aimed at more crypto-heavy portfolios.
Fundstrat's 2026 Forecasts
Tom Lee builds his Bitcoin growth scenario around the completion of the QT cycle and a more "accommodative" Fed stance, which he believes could set the stage for a new all-time high in January 2026. This approach targets large investors allocating up to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and Ether, assessing the likelihood of a strong rally with shifts in monetary policy. These ideas align with other market forecasts — for comparison, see the Galaxy Digital perspective, which offers alternative evaluations of crypto market dynamics.
Sean Farrell's Pessimistic View
Sean Farrell's forecast points to the risk of Bitcoin falling to $60K in the first half of 2025, considering such levels as potential "attractive opportunities." His analysis targets portfolios with a high crypto concentration and implies a more active trading strategy compared to Lee's approach. However, Farrell emphasizes that even under this scenario, he still sees the possibility of Bitcoin testing new highs in 2026.
Differences in Analysts' Strategies
The main difference between Lee and Farrell lies in their target audiences: Lee focuses on holding small crypto allocations in conservative portfolios, while Farrell recommends more active measures for crypto-heavy investors. These differing stances lead to contrasting recommendations on risk and position management tactics. Additionally, the analysts note that geopolitical instability and other external factors increase uncertainty, resulting in varied conclusions within the same firm.
Possibility of Both Scenarios Playing Out
Fundstrat's report does not rule out a scenario where both forecasts prove correct: Bitcoin could first reach new highs in Q1 2026, followed by a sharp decline to around $60K. This scenario highlights the crypto market's volatility and shows that short- and medium-term movements can differ significantly. Understanding this duality helps explain why opposing interpretations of the same factors exist within one analytical team.
Why This Matters
For a miner with one or thousands of devices, such forecasts primarily imply potential revenue volatility: significant price swings affect mining income and equipment profitability. The analysts' focus on different investor types and references to QT ending and Fed policy indicate that not only mining technicals but also macroeconomic signals are important. Even if you don't manage a large portfolio personally, understanding these scenarios helps assess risks and plan operations during periods of high uncertainty.
What to Do?
- Assess your profitability sensitivity to Bitcoin price: calculate at which prices mining remains profitable given current electricity and maintenance costs.
- Prepare an action plan for high volatility: set thresholds for decisions on holding, selling, or partially locking in revenue.
- If you hold a crypto-heavy position beyond mining, consider a more active risk management approach like Farrell's, including regular market monitoring.
- Watch for key macro events mentioned by analysts — the end of QT and shifts in Fed tone — as they can significantly impact price dynamics.
- Read diverse viewpoints and compare forecasts — for example, contrast Fundstrat's conclusions with other analysts and market scenarios to form a balanced opinion.
If you want to explore alternative forecasts and scenarios, our archive includes materials with various market assessments, including a possible retest of levels amid turbulence — a potential $80,000 retest. A balanced understanding of different approaches will help you make more informed decisions managing your mining operation.
