Weekly prediction market notional volume surged above $5 billion at the end of 2025 and repeated the milestone in the first week of 2026. Figures for that opening week show $5.26 billion in volume, a level that nearly matched the late-December high of $5.38 billion. Across the sector, open interest was reported at $892 million as of Jan. 16, 2025, underscoring sizable positions on many markets.
Record-Breaking Volumes in Prediction Markets
The late-2025 peak and the $5.26 billion opening week demonstrate a rapid increase in trading activity on prediction platforms. This spike is visible across several venues and has generated renewed attention to market liquidity and depth. For more on how daily trading has escalated alongside weekly totals, see the daily volume report linked here.
Leading Platforms and Market Share
Data compiled for the first week of 2026 show Kalshi commanding 38.2% of total notional volume, with Opinion holding 30.3% and Polymarket at 28.6%. Opinion’s growth has been tied in part to its points-based rewards system, which attracted quick uptake after launch. For context on how major platforms compare on specific markets and asset coverage, consult this platforms comparison.
Key Partnerships and Capital Infusions
Kalshi has formed partnerships with major media outlets and sports entities, expanding its mainstream presence; the platform also enlisted golfer Bryson DeChambeau as an endorser. Polymarket announced a substantial $2 billion capital infusion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and has secured partnerships with organizations such as the Golden Globes, Dow Jones, the New York Rangers, and Yahoo Finance. These deals have helped both firms increase visibility and financial backing within the sector.
Growing Competition and Market Dynamics
New entrants and established companies are pushing the space into a more competitive phase, with Opinion quickly taking a meaningful slice of weekly volume after its launch. Other firms mentioned as exploring or expanding into prediction markets include Crypto.com, Draftkings, Robinhood, Fanduel, and Coinbase, contributing to an increasingly crowded field. That competition is already reflected in the distribution of volume across several platforms.
Why this matters for a miner in Russia
For miners operating anywhere, including in Russia, rising prediction-market volume does not directly change hardware performance or electricity costs, but it signals increased trading activity in adjacent crypto sectors. Higher volume and larger capital injections into platforms can mean more on-ramps and liquidity for users who trade or hedge crypto exposure, which may affect how and when miners convert mined coins to fiat or other assets.
What to do?
- Monitor liquidity: track market volume and open interest to understand how easy it is to enter or exit positions if you trade mined coins.
- Keep funds segmented: separate operational mining revenue from trading funds to avoid mixing operational cash with speculative positions.
- Follow platform developments: watch for partnerships and capital moves (like Polymarket’s ICE infusion) that can change platform stability and user incentives.
- Maintain records: log trades and conversions for bookkeeping and local compliance, since increased market activity may prompt more frequent transactions.
