U.S. investment bank Compass Point issued a public warning on October 26, 2025, urging investors to be cautious about buying Bitcoin on dips until the asset clearly reclaims the $98,000 level. The advisory is based on on-chain analysis of short-term holder behavior and highlights how that average entry price can act as a psychological and technical resistance. Compass Point’s note, reported by Decrypt, frames the $98,000 figure as a critical threshold for market stability rather than an arbitrary target.
Compass Point's Warning on Bitcoin Volatility
Compass Point says the main risk today is that many recent buyers sit with an aggregate cost basis near $98,000, and until that level is overcome the market may remain fragile. In late October 2025 Bitcoin rallied toward that zone but did not secure a weekly close above $98,000, a failure that preceded a sell-off sending prices below $90,000. The bank flags leveraged purchasing as a force that can magnify these moves, because forced liquidations accelerate downward momentum when prices reject key levels.
The $98,000 Psychological Threshold
The $98,000 mark is identified by Compass Point as the average purchase price for short-term holders, a cohort that typically holds Bitcoin for less than 155 days. That collective breakeven creates what analysts call on-chain resistance: when price trades below it, some holders are more likely to sell to avoid losses, increasing supply pressure. The late-October rejection at this level, and the subsequent drop below $90,000, illustrates how a failed reclaim can quickly change market dynamics; for further context on recent downside moves see this drop below $90,000.
Short-Term Holder Psychology and Market Impact
Short-term holders differ from long-term investors in that their decisions are often driven by momentum and near-term sentiment rather than fundamental conviction. Compass Point’s analysis emphasizes that the aggregated cost basis of these holders functions as a collective breakeven, which can become a trigger for realized selling when breached. In markets where leverage is common, such realized selling can cascade, turning a routine correction into a sharper decline through forced liquidations.
Historical Precedents and Current Market Parallels
Similar patterns—where holder cost basis acted as support or resistance—have appeared in prior cycles, and Compass Point points to those precedents when interpreting current on-chain readings. The note illustrates how integrating on-chain metrics into traditional financial analysis helps gauge market stamina and investor behavior. This convergence of on-chain data and institutional research is a recurring theme in recent commentary on crypto market structure.
Broader 2025 Cryptocurrency Landscape
Compass Point’s guidance arrives amid broader 2025 trends such as deeper institutional participation and evolving financial products that connect traditional markets to blockchain assets. The bank places its warning in the context of these developments, stressing that despite increased participation, core mechanics like entry cost and leverage remain key determinants of short-term price moves. Traders and investors are therefore encouraged to blend chart analysis with blockchain-derived supply dynamics when assessing risk.
Почему это важно
Если вы майните в РФ и у вас от одного до тысячи устройств, это влияет на оценку риска ваших операций и решений по удержанию или продаже BTC. Падения, связанные с отказом цены закрепиться выше уровня входа краткосрочных держателей, могут кратковременно усилить волатильность и снизить ликвидность рынка. При этом риск отleveraged позиций означает, что даже небольшие провалы цен иногда перерастают в резкие распродажи, что важно учитывать при планировании наличности и обменных операций.
Что делать?
- Избегать агрессивного докупа на падениях, пока цена не вернётся и не закрепится выше $98,000.
- Снизить или избегать использования кредитного плеча в торговле, чтобы уменьшить риск принудительных ликвидаций при резких движениях.
- Следить за on-chain метриками и средним входом краткосрочных держателей, чтобы понимать возможные зоны сопротивления.
- Планировать операционные расходы и продажи с учётом волатильности: иметь запас рублей/валюты для покрытия коммуналки и расходов на оборудование на случай временного падения цены.
- Ограничивать экспозицию и устанавливать правила управления риском (фиксированные уровни для ребалансировки или стопы), чтобы не принимать решения в состоянии паники.
Compass Point’s advisory frames a cautious approach: until the $98,000 threshold is convincingly reclaimed, buying the dips carries heightened risk because of concentrated short-term holder cost basis and market leverage. For a closer look at the recent intramonth declines and their mechanics, this drop below $88,000 article reviews similar price action.
