Bitcoin's price is at a pivotal point, hovering near the $81,500 support level known as the True Market Mean (TMM). This level is significant because it represents the average cost basis of active Bitcoin holders and has historically served as a psychological line of support. If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, it risks entering a bear market with substantial price declines.
Current Bitcoin Price Situation
The True Market Mean, currently at $81,500, acts as a key support level for Bitcoin. According to onchain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has recently found support near this level. Historically, when Bitcoin traded above $81,500, investors showed confidence, but breaking below it often turns this support into resistance, leading to selling pressure. For example, in 2022, after falling below $81,500, Bitcoin's price dropped by 61%, reaching lows around $15,500 later that year.
Whale Activity and Market Impact
Adding to market concerns, two wallets linked to the financial services company Matrixport transferred 4,000 BTC, worth approximately $347.6 million, to the Binance exchange. Large transfers like these often indicate intentions to sell or hedge positions. Analyst 0xNobler noted that Matrixport has sold about 80% of its crypto holdings over the past five days, suggesting increased capitulation among large holders.
Market Analysis and Predictions
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ emphasizes the psychological importance of the $81,500 level, describing it as a "line in the sand" for investors. The AVIV Ratio, which compares active market valuation with realized valuation focusing on investor profits, currently points to a phase that could either consolidate support or confirm a bear market. Trader Daan Crypto Trade expects Bitcoin's price to remain volatile and range-bound until it decisively breaks key support or resistance levels.
Historical Context and Risks
Looking back, the breach of the $81,500 support level in 2022 led to a sharp 61% price decline, underscoring the risks of losing this critical threshold. Since mid-October 2025, long-term holders and whales have been selling aggressively, which could signal prolonged downward pressure. Miners and smaller-scale miners should be aware that such large whale movements can significantly influence market trends and price stability.
Why This Matters
For miners operating in Russia with up to 1,000 devices, the current Bitcoin price dynamics are crucial. A break below $81,500 could trigger a bear market, reducing profitability and potentially affecting operational decisions. Large BTC transfers to exchanges like Binance often precede increased selling pressure, which may lead to heightened price volatility.
What Should Miners Do?
- Monitor Bitcoin price closely, especially around the $81,500 support level.
- Stay informed about large BTC transfers and whale activity, as these can signal market shifts.
- Consider risk management strategies to protect mining operations during potential price downturns.
