Over the past month, Bitcoin's network hashrate dropped by 4%, marking the steepest decline since April 2024. VanEck attributes this 30-day decrease to miner capitulation: operators with higher costs are reducing capacity due to falling profitability. VanEck's analysis also shows that short-term hashrate dips have often preceded strong BTC price movements in the following months.
Bitcoin Hashrate Decline
The 4% drop over the last month reflects a reduction in the network's computational power. The report highlights this as the sharpest decline since April 2024. VanEck emphasizes that 30-day hashrate dips have frequently been associated with miner capitulation seasons. Such events shift the power balance in the network, making hashrate statistics a key indicator of the mining sector's health.
Reasons Behind the Hashrate Drop
VanEck and its representatives, Patrick Bush and Matthew Siegel, point to several factors driving miners to reduce capacity. First, declining profitability forces higher-cost operators to shut down some equipment to cut losses.
Second, the report notes the effects of the halving event and Bitcoin price drops, which reduce miners’ revenues while operational expenses remain constant. Finally, some capacity may be reallocated toward AI-related tasks if they offer higher margins.
Impact of Hashrate Decline on Bitcoin Price
VanEck's analysis shows that historically, hashrate declines have often been followed by BTC price increases over three to six months. Specifically, BTC’s 90-day returns were positive 65% of the time during hashrate declines, compared to 54% during mining activity growth.
Over a longer horizon, the results are even more pronounced: over 180 days, a negative 30-day hashrate growth corresponded to positive returns 77% of the time. The authors note that on average, Bitcoin rose 72% within 180 days after mining activity dropped for more than 30 days, whereas after periods of growth, the average gain was 48%.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
According to CoinGecko, at the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $88,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, analysts’ opinions on the 2026 price outlook are divided: some experts in the report expect a possible pullback to around $65,000.
Why This Matters
For miners operating one or hundreds of rigs, a hashrate drop primarily indicates phases of capacity redistribution and margin pressure in the market. Capitulation by less efficient operators changes the competitive landscape, directly affecting the profitability of those remaining in the network.
At the same time, VanEck’s historical data shows that such short-term dips are not necessarily harmful to BTC holders: they often preceded price increases in the following months. For miners, this means the current hashrate decline may bring increased volatility but also potential for improved market conditions.
What to Do?
- Check your equipment’s current profitability and recalculate margins considering actual electricity and maintenance costs.
- If profitability has dropped, consider reducing load: temporarily shutting down some rigs or switching to more profitable algorithms/tasks if technically feasible.
- Plan maintenance and optimization: cleaning, firmware updates, fan and power adjustments can reduce expenses and lower the risk of unexpected downtime.
- Monitor BTC price and key network metrics, including hashrate, to respond promptly to market changes and make informed decisions about scaling up or down.
