The decline in Bitcoin's price combined with intensified mining competition has resulted in record-low profitability for mining the leading cryptocurrency. Under these conditions, many market participants have reduced their activity, which has impacted the network's total computing power — the hashrate.
The Impact of Miner Capitulation on Bitcoin's Price
Decreased profitability forces some miners to temporarily reduce computing power or exit the market, collectively manifesting as "capitulation." VanEck, in its report, describes the observed changes as a tactical hashrate decline in recent months, linking it to the economic pressure on miners.
VanEck Analysis: A Bullish Signal for Bitcoin
VanEck conducted a statistical analysis of data since 2014 and noted that periods of hashrate decline often preceded mid-term Bitcoin price increases. Specifically, when the hashrate dropped over the past 90 days, in 77% of cases Bitcoin's returns over the following 180 days were positive, with an average growth of 72%.
Hashrate and Bitcoin Price Dynamics
The hashrate peaked at around 1.31 Zh/s, after which the network's total power decreased to approximately 1.02 Zh/s by December 23 — a nearly 25% drop. Over the same period, Bitcoin's price fell from $110K to $87.5K, while the price peak was at the beginning of October at $126.2K.
Mining Profitability Situation
According to TheMinerMag, at current Bitcoin prices around $87K and existing competition levels, even the most efficient companies with cheap electricity operate nearly at breakeven. Despite low profitability, many miners continue operations, citing belief in Bitcoin's future.
The Role of DAT Companies in the Bitcoin Market
DIGITAL Asset Treasury (DAT) companies play a distinct role in supporting demand by purchasing Bitcoin as a reserve. Over 30 days through mid-December, such companies acquired about 42,000 BTC — the largest purchase since the period from July 16 to August 15, 2025, when DAT participants added 128,100 BTC.
DAT Project Stock Situation
DAT projects have actively entered public markets, but according to Bloomberg, the median drawdown for publicly traded companies in the US and Canada was 43% as of December 8. The publication estimates that most of these companies are unprofitable, and by year-end, 70% of DAT project stocks will be worth less than at the start.
Why This Matters
For miners, low profitability means direct profit reduction and increased pressure on operational decisions: whether to pay for electricity and equipment or temporarily reduce capacity. Meanwhile, the tactical hashrate decline noted by VanEck has historically been accompanied in most cases by subsequent mid-term price growth, potentially shifting the balance between selling and holding mined BTC.
Additionally, large purchases by DAT companies increase market demand, but the outflow of investments in DAT project stocks and their unprofitability show that market support does not always reflect in the value of related public companies. For Russian miners, this means price and stock effects may diverge — Bitcoin price growth does not necessarily improve mining companies' stock positions.
What to Do?
If you operate from one to several hundred devices, it is useful to recalculate current margins and check your net earnings after electricity and other costs. Keep in mind TheMinerMag's note: at prices around $87K, even the most efficient operators work nearly at breakeven, influencing short-term decisions on selling or holding coins.
- Recalculate mining costs considering actual tariffs and equipment utilization.
- Assess liquidity reserves: can your project survive low profitability periods without forced asset sales.
- Plan maintenance and upgrades: at low profitability, it may be better to postpone capital expenses if not critical.
- Consider a strategy for allocating mined BTC between holding and partial selling based on your risk assessment.
- Monitor hashrate dynamics and reports from major players — VanEck and DAT company purchases provide signals to compare with your operational situation.
In Brief
Record-low profitability and tactical hashrate decline are evident across the market. VanEck's historical analysis shows such periods often preceded positive mid-term Bitcoin returns, but this does not negate current operational and financial risks for miners.
