Analytical firm CryptoQuant notes that the current market phase exhibits signs of a bear cycle: the key signal is weakening demand for Bitcoin. On-chain metrics and real-time market signals diverge from short-term optimism, indicating that structural factors dominate rather than temporary activity spikes.
CryptoQuant Confirms Start of Bear Market
In its report, CryptoQuant identifies the main signal of the bear market onset as a decline in aggregate demand for Bitcoin and corresponding on-chain metric behavior. Analysts highlight a divergence between these on-chain indicators and short-term positive market sentiment, reinforcing the interpretation of the current phase as bearish; similar observations align with conclusions on why there is no bullish trend in the crypto market.
Behavior of Large Holders ("Whales")
The report points out that large holders act cautiously amid low volatility: there are no significant net purchases, and some funds are redistributed among addresses with large balances. This behavior contrasts with early bullish cycle stages when major players actively accumulated BTC during dips, confirming the cautious stance of institutional and large private participants; more details on why large traders are not buying can be found in another article.
Decline in Trading Activity
CryptoQuant records a decrease in total trading volume on major centralized exchanges and a drop in derivatives market activity, indicating reduced liquidity and interest from some participants. As a result, many players adopt a wait-and-see approach, which amplifies corrective price movements and supports the bearish nature of the current phase.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
Analysts emphasize that tight monetary policy and elevated interest rates continue to restrain Bitcoin's growth, as investors shift capital toward more conservative instruments. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty and inflation expectations remain factors influencing overall inflows into risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
CryptoQuant's Conclusions and Forecasts
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has yet to overcome structural obstacles typical of a bear market, and a sustainable reversal will require a combination of restored institutional interest and improved macroeconomic conditions. Analysts do not rule out occasional short-term activity spikes but believe these alone do not guarantee a prolonged bullish trend; for broader context, see the Bitcoin price forecast.
Why This Matters
For miners with 1–1000 devices, understanding these signals helps assess the market environment in which they operate: declining demand and reduced trading volumes typically increase price volatility and may lower liquidity when selling mined coins. Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressure and cautious large holders mean rapid and confident price growth is unlikely without external changes, making expense planning and inventory management critical.
What to Do?
If you mine in Russia and have between one and a thousand devices, it’s beneficial to focus on operational resilience and cost control rather than trying to catch short-term market moves. Below are practical steps to help reduce risks and prepare for various scenarios.
- Review your cost structure: monitor electricity rates and optimize operating hours where possible.
- Maintain reserve liquidity: keep part of mined coins in reserve to avoid forced sales during short-term dips.
- Monitor on-chain metrics and exchange volumes: declining demand and trading activity are key signals to watch.
- Optimize equipment and maintenance: regular servicing and firmware updates improve mining reliability and efficiency.
- Avoid panic decisions: plan sales and purchases according to a pre-established strategy, considering your operating costs and goals.
This material is not individual investment advice. Asset management and sales decisions should be made independently, considering your goals and risk profile.
