Crypto analyst known as XY notes that a full year has passed since the market entered the bear phase, which has changed how participants interpret signals. As a result, many traders and investors sought familiar patterns without considering the unique aspects of the current cycle and new factors that could distort classic reversal signs.
The Bear Market and Its Characteristics
According to the analyst, the first common mistake is trying to assess the entire crypto market solely through Bitcoin's price. This led to incorrect expectations: with BTC relatively stable, some participants believed a classic correction within a bull rally would begin in the rest of the market. This approach overlooked other liquidity distribution mechanisms and shifts in investor behavior.
The analyst also emphasizes that this cycle exhibits typical psychological stages of a bear trend, which alter the market's reaction to news and events. Observing these phases helps explain why signals familiar from past cycles behaved differently this time.
The Altseason That Never Was
In November 2024, the hype around the TRUMP token created the impression of a large-scale altcoin rally and sparked expectations of an "altseason." However, this wave was not the result of a unified new meta-strategy. Many interpreted the success of individual tokens as a signal for mass entry into complex products, but the overall landscape did not form a new sustainable yield-seeking strategy.
The analyst points out that the market effectively skipped an intermediate stage: instead of the sequence "BTC → new meta → token season," there was a direct transition "BTC → token season," with the peak of this wave coinciding with the November euphoria around TRUMP. A similar analysis of cycle starting points can be found in the article on the altcoin bull cycle, discussing reasons for uneven alt growth.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market Psychology
The second common mistake the analyst identifies is an excessive focus on Bitcoin's price when evaluating the overall market condition. After the TRUMP hype, the stability of a single coin was seen as a sign of no serious correction, which did not align with the dynamics of other assets.
According to the expert, since January 2025, the market has sequentially passed through stages of anxiety, denial, and panic, then entered phases of anger and depression typical of late bear trend stages. This psychological progression explains why participant reactions became more emotional and less predictable.
Why This Matters
If you mine from one to a thousand devices in Russia, these observations matter because they change liquidity behavior and interest in various tokens, which can affect profitability and payout liquidity. Even Bitcoin's relative stability does not guarantee calm in the altcoin market, so reactions to events can be swift and dramatic.
Understanding that there were two signals—the TRUMP hype and misplaced reliance on BTC—helps assess the risk of short-term price spikes and maintain discipline in managing equipment and finances. This is useful when planning sales, reinvestments, and evaluating long-term electricity costs.
What to Do?
Practical steps for miners considering these observations should be chosen based on simple, verifiable criteria. Below is a list of actions to help reduce operational risks and prepare for volatility.
- Check the profitability of current coins and payout frequency; if income falls, consider switching to more liquid currencies.
- Maintain a reserve fund to cover electricity and equipment maintenance costs in case of short-term income drops.
- Monitor news and analytical summaries but do not rely solely on BTC prices—consider altcoin behavior and local events.
- Plan sales and reinvestments according to pre-established rules to avoid succumbing to panic or euphoria phases.
Additionally, reviewing materials on the bear market onset and Bitcoin dynamics helps understand which factors most often change the overall trend; see the overview on the bear market beginning for comparing different perspectives. Ultimately, a structured risk approach and disciplined asset management help endure volatile periods.
