Analysts at Novaque Research note that Bitcoin's price dynamics following the October correction demonstrate a "shift from a distribution phase to a balance recovery mode." This phrasing reflects a change in sentiment: instead of signs of panic or aggressive accumulation, there is relative stabilization of prices and balances. The report emphasizes that the price movement structure does not indicate either capitulation or the beginning of a large-scale accumulation phase.
Summary of Novaque Research Study
The main point of the report is that the Bitcoin market is moving from distribution into a balance recovery phase, as evidenced by key on-chain metrics and exchange balance behavior. Analysts observe that after the October correction, price dynamics show signs of stabilization rather than continued panic. An important conclusion is that there is neither clear resumption of "aggressive accumulation" nor mass capitulation among participants.
Key On-Chain Metrics and Their Significance
NUPL — Moderate Unrealized Losses
The report highlights that participants interacting with centralized exchanges "remain in the zone of moderate unrealized losses," reflected in lowered NUPL values. Analysts note that the volume of such losses has stopped increasing, indicating that the market is absorbing losses rather than them accumulating. For a detailed analysis of NUPL dynamics, see the article on the sharp decline in the NUPL indicator.
SOPR — Sales Near Breakeven
The SOPR metric in the study "fluctuates near the breakeven point," indicating that coins are being sold at prices close to cost basis. This scenario aligns with the absence of mass panic loss-taking and suggests sellers are not rushing to offload assets at a loss. As a result, trading activity appears as redistribution rather than forced liquidations.
MVRV and Speculative Activity
The report notes that MVRV "holds within a narrow range," while there remains an inflow of funds from highly active addresses, signaling ongoing speculative activity. According to analysts, the combination of stable MVRV and inflows from active addresses corresponds more to market rotation and sideways trading than the start of a new impulsive trend.
Exchange Flows and Seller Activity
Novaque points out that exchange deposit flows are episodic: they "intensify only during short-term price dips, then weaken" as prices stabilize. Balances of addresses linked to trading platforms have stabilized, and the volume of unrealized losses no longer grows. This dynamic indicates the market is absorbing losses rather than experiencing forced liquidations.
If you want detailed insights on exchange flow behavior and its impact on recovery, pay attention to studies on Binance flows, which examine similar episodic patterns of Binance flows.
Macroeconomic Context and Risks
The report's authors emphasize that the balance recovery process occurs amid a "partially favorable macro environment," yet key external factors for sustainable growth have not yet emerged. The document notes that historically strong BTC growth phases coincided with both a weakening dollar and declining real yields, conditions not currently observed. Consequently, the market remains in a waiting mode for the next impulse.
Conclusions
Overall, Novaque Research describes the current picture as consolidation and corrective balance recovery rather than cycle completion or the start of a new powerful bull trend. The market is characterized by "compressed profitability," "reactive" exchange flows, and price consolidation, while key metrics have ceased deteriorating. Participants and analysts observe a state of readiness—the market awaits an external trigger for the next major move.
Why This Matters
For miners, any stabilization of balances and absence of mass forced selling means a lower likelihood of sharp price drops caused by panic loss-taking. At the same time, episodic inflows to exchanges during local dips imply that short-term fluctuations remain possible and may temporarily reduce mining profitability. Finally, the lack of favorable macro conditions for sustainable growth suggests that prolonged rallies without external changes are unlikely.
What to Do?
Whether you operate one or a thousand devices, focus on operational resilience: check cooling systems, plan maintenance, and monitor electricity costs to endure possible short-term downturns. When planning sales, consider that SOPR shows realizations near cost basis, so hasty sell-offs during local dips may be unprofitable.
Practical steps for miners: 1) regularly monitor NUPL, SOPR, MVRV, and exchange flows; 2) have a plan to reduce consumption if profitability sharply declines; 3) consult market mining and economic reviews as needed, for example on mining outlooks. These simple measures will help maintain profitability while the market waits for the next impulse.
Where to Watch Next
Track NUPL dynamics (reflecting unrealized profit and loss levels), SOPR (showing at what prices coins are sold), and MVRV combined with deposit flows to exchanges. The combination of these metrics will help you understand whether losses are being absorbed by the market and trading activity remains sideways, or if signs of a strong future move are accumulating.
