The Bitcoin network hashrate has decreased by 4% over the past month, marking the steepest drop since April 2024. VanEck notes that this 30-day decline reflects miner capitulation caused by reduced profitability and shutdowns among less efficient operators. Their analysis also highlights that after brief hashrate dips, Bitcoin often performs better in the following months. Analysts also observe shifts in capacity distribution and influences from halving events and infrastructure reallocations toward more profitable AI tasks.
Bitcoin Hashrate Decline
According to the report, the network’s hashrate fell 4% in the last 30 days — the most significant drop since April 2024. VanEck views this period as a short-term mining activity correction during which some capacity was turned off. This 30-day decline is interpreted as miner capitulation rather than a long-term trend.
Reasons for Hashrate Decline
VanEck and analysts explain the drop by several concurrent factors. Patrick Bush and Matthew Siegel from VanEck cite reduced mining profitability and capacity cuts by high-cost operators as key causes.
- Miner capitulation due to decreased profitability.
- Shutdown of capacity by high-cost operators.
- Halving effects and BTC price drops impacting mining margins.
- Reallocation of some capacity toward AI-related tasks.
Impact of Hashrate Decline on Bitcoin Price
VanEck points to a historical correlation between hashrate drops and subsequent BTC price increases over the next three to six months on average. Their analysis shows BTC’s 90-day returns were positive in 65% of cases following hashrate declines, compared to 54% when hashrate rose.
This effect persists over longer horizons: over 180 days, a negative 30-day hashrate growth corresponded to positive returns 77% of the time. VanEck data indicates Bitcoin averaged a 72% gain over 180 days after periods when mining activity declined for more than 30 days.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded around $88,000 and had dropped 1% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Expert opinions on future prospects vary: some analysts predict a pullback to $65,000, while others offer different forecasts.
Why This Matters
For miners, a hashrate decline means some competitors have temporarily left the network, potentially reducing competition for block rewards in the short term. However, the drop often reflects worsening profitability for less efficient operators, so it’s important to reassess the current profitability of your equipment. VanEck’s historical data shows BTC prices often recover and rise after such drops, but this is not guaranteed and should not prompt risky decisions without evaluating your own economics.
Additionally, capacity shifts toward other tasks and older equipment shutdowns alter market dynamics — operators with more efficient and cheaper energy sources gain an advantage. Thus, this situation is relevant not only for short-term revenue but also for strategic decisions about upgrading equipment and optimizing costs.
What to Do?
Miner actions depend on farm size and current profitability, but some basic steps are advisable. First, recalculate current profitability considering electricity rates and mining revenue to identify which devices remain profitable. Second, optimize power consumption and pool connections, reducing load on less efficient ASIC rigs if needed.
- Quickly calculate margin per equipment type and for the entire farm.
- Optimize energy use and cooling to lower operating costs.
- Review pool participation and capacity distribution for stable payouts.
- Assess the feasibility of upgrading outdated rigs — consider payback time and current margin.
- Regularly monitor network hashrate and BTC price using trusted sources like VanEck and CoinGecko.
These steps will help adjust operational decisions and prepare for possible price fluctuations without assuming guaranteed market moves.
