Open interest in Bitcoin futures sharply declined: aggregated positions on major exchanges fell to $42 billion, marking the lowest level in eight months. Simultaneously, the market experienced a volatile episode during which over $260 million in leveraged BTC futures positions were liquidated, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $825 million outflow over five days. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin futures basis rate remained steady at 5%, and investors partially shifted toward safe-haven assets — gold and silver reached historic highs.
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Falls to Eight-Month Low
The aggregated open interest on major trading platforms dropped to $42 billion, down from $47 billion two weeks ago, making the current figure the lowest in the past eight months. This decline was accompanied by the liquidation of more than $260 million in leveraged positions: this deleveraging partially explains the rapid market correction. It is important to understand that a decrease in open interest often reflects leverage cleanup rather than a definitive shift in the long-term trend.
The mechanics of the futures market mean that long and short positions offset each other, so a reduction in open interest does not necessarily indicate that players are broadly betting on a decline. For a more detailed breakdown of market positioning, you can refer to materials on futures and options, which compile related positioning and metrics: futures and options.
Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and Economic Uncertainty
Investor nervousness intensified following a five-day outflow of $825 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs, adding pressure on short-term dynamics. Although this outflow represents a small portion of total ETF deposits, it signals a temporary decline in risk appetite among some institutional and retail participants. At the same time, safe-haven demand supported gold and silver, which rose to new all-time highs.
The increased interest in safe assets coincided with heightened demand for government securities: the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped to a three-week low, reflecting a shift toward guaranteed debt amid uncertainty.
Bitcoin Futures Basis Rate Recovery and Sentiment Stabilization
The Bitcoin futures basis rate remained at 5%, indicating relative stability in futures premiums. This level was maintained compared to the previous week and is far from the lower values seen during periods of stronger pessimism.
The options market also shows signs of stabilization: option market metrics, including the delta skew profile, suggest a shift in expectations but do not indicate a clear panic-driven demand for put options. For a detailed analysis of options, you can refer to the review of expiring positions and their impact: Bitcoin options.
Impact of US Policy on Markets
US political decisions have also influenced market dynamics: the administration postponed tariffs on semiconductor imports from China until June 2027, and earlier lifted restrictions on exporting certain Nvidia chips to China. These steps affect sentiment in the tech sector and related markets, indirectly impacting capital inflows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This policy encourages the redistribution of capital flows among tech assets, precious metals, and the crypto market, but the direct connection to BTC’s short-term dynamics is mainly expressed through the overall investor risk appetite.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia operating 1–1000 devices, the current situation is especially important due to potential increases in price volatility and changes in market liquidity. The decline in open interest and ETF outflows may amplify short-term price fluctuations, affecting revenue from selling mined coins and working capital planning.
Additionally, rising demand for safe-haven assets and falling government bond yields often accompany capital flow redistribution, but this does not imply an inevitable prolonged BTC decline — futures basis rates and option metrics do not currently indicate a clear panic sell-off.
What to Do?
Recommendations for miners are straightforward and practical: first, assess the financial stability of operations and risk management. Evaluate how current BTC reserves and cash holdings cover operating expenses during temporary price drops, and adjust coin sale schedules if necessary.
- Review the policy for selling mined BTC: spread sales over time to smooth out volatility.
- Control electricity and maintenance costs: optimizing expenses directly affects profitability amid price swings.
- Monitor market indicators (OI, basis, ETF outflows) and subscribe to relevant reviews and data to respond promptly to changes.
- Postpone major equipment purchases until market uncertainty stabilizes if they are critical to the budget.
These steps will help maintain operational flexibility and reduce risk from external market shocks without requiring abrupt trading decisions or constituting investment advice.