Bitcoin sharply lost value at the end of 2025: since early October, it dropped 23%, and from September, it declined 24% compared to levels after the September meeting. A major liquidation cascade on October 10 severely impacted market liquidity, causing BTC price to fall from $122,500 to $107,000 within hours.
Reasons for Cryptocurrency Decline at the End of 2025
Liquidation Cascade
The key shock was a $19 billion liquidation cascade on October 10, which in a short time pushed Bitcoin's price down from $122,500 to $107,000. This surge in sell-offs reduced market depth and decreased the number of genuine buyers, thereby intensifying further sell-offs.
Unsuccessful Altcoin ETFs
The launch of spot ETFs on altcoins led to notable capital inflows but did not protect the prices of underlying tokens. For instance, Solana ETFs attracted $900 million since late October, and XRP products saw over $1 billion in net inflows over a month. However, these inflows did not prevent token price declines nor offset the overall sell-off trend.
Liquidity Issues and DAT
Many new publicly traded companies holding crypto treasuries (DAT) initially acted as buyers but later their role shifted. Declines in mNAV for several such companies and signals of potential asset sales turned potential buyers into forced sellers, worsening the downturn. More on market dynamics can be found in our expert opinions article here.
Seasonality and Historical Data
Analysts have long noted that the fourth quarter historically brought strong returns for Bitcoin: the average Q4 return since 2013 is 77%. This year, historical trends did not favor investors, and expected seasonal support failed to materialize.
The Role of DAT in the Market Decline
DAT—public companies with crypto treasuries—were initially positioned as structural buyers, similar to Michael Saylor and Strategy (MSTR). However, as the crypto market declined, many faced stock prices falling below net asset value, limiting their capital-raising ability and shifting behavior from buying to share buybacks and, in some cases, potential asset sales.
CoinShares publicly stated that the DAT bubble has largely burst, and some executives, including Strategy (MSTR) CEO Phong Le, hinted at possible Bitcoin sales if mNAV falls below 1.0. This dynamic increases the risk of additional market supply and reduces participant confidence.
ETF Impact on Cryptocurrencies
Spot ETFs led to significant capital inflows into certain altcoins, but these inflows did not translate into sustained price growth. Examples include $900 million into Solana ETFs since late October and over $1 billion net inflows into XRP products over a month; yet, underlying token prices continued to fall.
This situation shows that funds flowing into ETFs may not have the same effect as direct spot purchases and sometimes fail to offset selling pressure amid reduced liquidity. For a detailed analysis of related market moves, see our review of results and causes.
Outlook for 2026
At the time of publication, there were few clear catalysts to decisively reverse the market upward. Regulatory rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025 did not halt declines, and many previously cited growth drivers—from ETFs to DAT—have yet to meet investor expectations.
In this environment, potential market scenarios depend on liquidity recovery, DAT behavior, and whether institutional and retail demand returns. The influence mechanisms are visible in current inflows and changing roles of major players.
Why This Matters
If you mine with 1 to 1000 devices in Russia, Bitcoin’s decline and market volatility directly affect the value of your mined coins and your selling plans. Liquidity shortages and large sell-offs can cause sharp price drops in short periods, increasing the risk of losses if you sell mined BTC immediately.
Moreover, the presence of DAT and ETFs changes demand profiles: inflows into funds do not always indicate sustained spot market buying interest, and potential forced sales by large holders can amplify downtrends.
What to Do?
- Assess liquidity reserves: keep funds set aside for electricity payments and potential extended low-price periods.
- Plan sales: stagger selling mined coins to reduce the risk of selling everything during local downturns.
- Monitor mNAV and news on DAT/ETF: signals of possible mass sales can help adjust your mining sale strategy in advance.
- Use internal resources for analysis: for timely price and news tracking, see our overview of the current decline and crypto firm stock drops here.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin fall so sharply? Briefly: a strong $19 billion liquidation cascade on October 10 and subsequent liquidity deterioration, combined with DAT’s changing role and limited impact of altcoin ETF inflows, intensified selling pressure.
Does ETF inflow mean prices will rise? No, ETF inflows (e.g., $900 million in Solana and over $1 billion in XRP) did not guarantee price increases for underlying tokens in the current environment; inflows don’t always match direct spot demand.
What is important for miners in Russia? Mainly to consider liquidity risks and sharp price drops when planning sales, maintain a financial cushion, and watch for signals of possible mass sell-offs by large holders.