The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from November to December 2025, while the all‑items index moved up 2.7% over the past year. Despite the monthly uptick, market pricing and analysts generally expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its upcoming January meeting.
December CPI Report Highlights
The BLS said the CPI for all urban consumers "increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in December." Shelter costs led the monthly advance, rising 0.4% and accounting for much of the headline move. Overall, the annual all‑items increase was 2.7% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting the sum of several price categories.
Key Drivers of Inflation
- Shelter: increased 0.4% in December and carried the largest weight in the monthly rise.
- Food: added 0.7% over the period, with grocery and restaurant prices climbing.
- Energy: inched up 0.3% in December, contributing to the monthly increase.
Market Reactions
Major stock indexes slipped into modest pullbacks following the report, while safe-haven and commodity markets showed gains. Bitcoin climbed about 1.8% over the past day, gold gained 0.51%, and silver rose 3.99% on the session, movements that echo recent coverage on inflation and bitcoin. Overall, market pricing did not shift toward expecting an immediate policy easing.
Federal Reserve's Stance
News outlets reported that markets aren’t penciling in a rate cut when the Fed meets on Jan. 28. Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, warned: "We’ve seen this movie before — inflation isn’t reheating, but it remains above target." CME’s Fedwatch tool shows a 97.2% probability the rate stays put, reflecting broad expectations that the Fed will hold fire for now.
Additional context
The CPI release comes as the Department of Justice continues probing the Fed’s renovation costs, a separate development that has not shifted market expectations. Even so, the chances of Chair Jerome Powell facing charges by June 30, 2026, sit at a slim 12%, a probability reflected in betting markets and reporting around the probe.
Why this matters
If you run mining hardware in Russia, this CPI report helps explain why global market pricing is holding steady: the U.S. inflation uptick was modest and did not push markets to expect an imminent Fed rate cut. That matters because central-bank policy expectations influence global risk sentiment and asset prices, which in turn can affect the fiat value of crypto you mine and the behavior of trading counterparties.
What to do?
For miners with between 1 and 1,000 machines, focus on practical steps rather than macro forecasts. Monitor the ruble exchange rate and local electricity tariffs regularly, because these drive your immediate costs and revenue in fiat terms. Keep maintenance and cooling efficient to avoid downtime, and consider short-term cash or coin liquidity to cover operating expenses if markets move suddenly.
FAQ
What did the December CPI report show? The CPI rose 0.3% month‑to‑month (seasonally adjusted) and the all‑items index was up 2.7% year‑over‑year, according to the BLS.
Will the Fed cut rates at its January meeting? Markets largely expect no rate cut at the Jan. 28 meeting; CME’s Fedwatch tool shows a 97.2% probability the rate stays unchanged.
Which prices drove the rise in December? Shelter was the largest contributor with a 0.4% increase, while food added 0.7% and energy rose 0.3%.
How did markets react? Major stock indexes dipped modestly, while bitcoin climbed about 1.8%, gold gained 0.51%, and silver rose 3.99% on the session.
