Institutional investors have started buying bitcoin faster than miners can produce it. Over the past three days, purchase volumes have outpaced daily mining output by 13%, marking a noticeable shift in the supply-demand balance.
At the same time, institutional interest has intensified amid a significant correction: bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its October highs. At these levels, a mix of panic and accumulation is observed, generating different signals for short-term and long-term market participants.
Bitcoin Demand Surpasses Mining Supply
In recent days, institutional purchases have exceeded the influx of new coins mined by 13%. This demand surpassing daily issuance was last recorded in November, indicating growing interest from companies and large funds.
For more details on the mechanics of this phenomenon, see the article why demand exceeds supply, which analyzes the causes and market implications.
Market Situation and Expert Opinions
Following a price drop of over 30%, analysts note increased stress within the $126,000 to $80,500 range — a point made by Capriole founder Charles Edwards. He also highlighted growing discounts to net asset value and rising leverage among bitcoin-holding companies.
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11, classified as "extreme fear." Meanwhile, market behavior shows divergence: according to several observers, long-term holders continue accumulating despite the overall pessimistic outlook.
Behavior of Major Players
Some large players, including strategic buyers, are increasing their positions during this period. This amplifies the contrast between sales from some corporate treasuries and accumulation by long-term investors.
It is also noted that new investors are currently at a loss — CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman reported that bitcoin has traded below their average entry price for over a month. Together, these factors create a complex picture for short-term price recovery.
Similar trends and holder impacts are discussed in detail in the article on long-term bitcoin holders, explaining why accumulation by large participants is important for the market.
Bitcoin Market Outlook
Long-term indicators point to coin accumulation by certain participant groups, which some analysts interpret as a foundation for future growth. At the same time, short-term metrics remain negative, and pressure from corporate treasuries may hinder rapid price recovery.
If you want to monitor miner behavior and potential sales of mined coins, it’s useful to review the discussion on miner capitulation, which examines risks to mining and supply distribution.
Why This Matters
For a miner in Russia operating from one to a thousand devices, the combination of institutional demand and price decline means increased market volatility. However, purchases exceeding mining output do not guarantee immediate price growth — short-term sharp fluctuations and pressure from corporate sales are possible.
The Fear and Greed Index at 11 and the fact that new investors are at a loss indicate high market nervousness. This is important to consider when planning sales of mined coins and managing mining cash flow.
What to Do?
Practical steps that can help miners reduce risks and maintain profitability:
- Review your sales strategy: spread sales over time to avoid exposure to strong short-term price swings.
- Control electricity and maintenance costs to lower the breakeven point during low prices.
- Maintain a reserve fund in currency to cover operating expenses during price dips.
- Monitor the behavior of large holders and corporate treasuries to anticipate periods of increased price pressure.
- Use familiar accounting and monitoring tools to understand when new investors are at a loss and how this correlates with market liquidity.
These measures do not eliminate market risks but help systematize mining revenue management and reduce the likelihood of forced sales at unfavorable times.