The Federal Reserve's decisions remain a key factor influencing cryptocurrency dynamics, and views within the regulator about 2026 are divided. In 2025, the Fed cut rates three times, with the last cut on December 10 setting the rate range at 3.5–3.75%. Median forecasts indicate only one additional cut in 2026, creating uncertainty for the markets.
Impact of Federal Reserve Policy on the Cryptocurrency Market
Rate cuts typically increase the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, because bonds and deposits become less profitable. However, the current picture remains mixed: despite a series of cuts in 2025, federal rates are still higher than before, and 2026 forecasts suggest only one more cut, limiting the potential for rapid market moves.
For more context on the link between Fed decisions and Bitcoin dynamics, see the article on the Federal Reserve's impact on Bitcoin, which discusses these mechanisms in detail. This will help understand the macro factors influencing capital inflows into crypto assets.
Divergences Within the Federal Reserve
The December dot plot revealed notable differences of opinion among Fed members: an equal number of policymakers forecast zero, one, or two rate cuts in 2026. This divergence means the regulator lacks a unified roadmap, and future decisions will largely depend on new inflation and labor market data.
Analysts pointing toward a softer policy noted that the updated forecasts "were not particularly hawkish," as Charles Schwab experts observed. At the same time, CoinEx Research highlights significant internal disagreements within the Fed, reflected in the wide range of forecasts and increased uncertainty for investors.
The next Fed meeting on January 27–28 will be the first opportunity to update guidance and clarify the tone for the quarter. Meanwhile, CME Group shows investors assign only a 20% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut in January, further limiting expectations for immediate easing.
Analysts’ Forecasts for 2026
Experts suggest several scenarios for early in the year. The base case, according to exchange representatives and research groups, is one rate cut in Q1 with continuation of the current short-term Treasury buyback program, which could provide additional liquidity to the market.
However, a more pessimistic scenario is possible: if inflation rises again, the Fed may pause rate cuts and the buyback program, causing market stress. These scenarios underscore the importance of monitoring macro data and regulator comments.
For a detailed assessment of the effects of one or more rate cuts, see the analysis on how Fed rate cuts affect cryptocurrency, which explores possible channels impacting capital inflows.
Impact of Fed Leadership Change
Jerome Powell’s term expires in May, and candidate selection is underway, with the president favoring softer approaches. A change in the central bank’s leadership could shift policy tone and the regulator’s support for risk assets going forward.
The expected leadership reshuffle is a significant factor that itself raises market uncertainty and could alter the pace and nature of easing. To follow the candidate selection process and its implications, see the dedicated article on Fed Chair candidates for current insights.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia, Fed macro decisions do not directly change mining technical parameters but affect crypto demand and prices, which in turn impact your revenue from coin sales. The internal Fed uncertainty and varying likelihood of further rate cuts mean short, sharp price moves are possible, so it’s important to factor volatility into sales planning.
Additionally, changes in global market liquidity influence investment volumes in the crypto economy and withdrawal speeds from exchanges, potentially affecting market depth and spreads during trades. A Fed leadership change could amplify these effects if it shifts the overall monetary policy tone.
What to Do?
For miners with 1–1000 devices in Russia, it’s useful to follow simple, proven steps to mitigate market uncertainty impacts and maintain income stability.
- Diversify sales: spread coin sales over time to avoid dependence on a single unfavorable price point.
- Control expenses: optimize electricity consumption and consider equipment efficiency when planning upgrades.
- Build reserves: keep part of your revenue in stable assets or fiat to cover costs during price drops.
- Monitor macro data and Fed meetings: key events like the January 27–28 meeting can shift market tone; monitoring services help make timely decisions.
- Study liquidity and spreads on exchanges before large sales to reduce trading costs and slippage.