By year-end, the Bitcoin options market sees a significant volume of open positions: a total of $30.3 billion will expire. The distribution of strike prices and concentration of bets favor bearish strategies if BTC price fails to surpass key levels around $88,000–$94,000.
Bitcoin Options Market Overview
The total volume of open options set to be settled at expiration is $30.3 billion. Most call options (bets on price increase) are positioned substantially above the $89,000–$94,000 range, reducing their chances of being exercised at current prices.
Platforms distribute this open interest unevenly: Deribit holds about 80% of the aggregated open interest, followed by CME with approximately an 11% share. Meanwhile, a significant portion of call positions are considered potentially worthless at the current price level.
Current Dynamics and Forecasts
Of the total call option volume, $21.7 billion are estimated by the market to expire worthless on the expiration day if BTC does not rise above the key levels. Less than 6% of call options on Deribit are positioned at $92,000 or below, further lowering their likelihood of exercise.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin trades above $88,000 at expiration, over 50% of the $7.7 billion in put options on Deribit will also expire worthless. As a result, bearish strategies maintain an advantage if the price remains below $94,000.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
Market participants’ expectations are influenced by news from the US. The Treasury confirmed plans to pay a $2,000 tariff reimbursement to low-income individuals in early 2026, along with statements that a change in Federal Reserve leadership might prioritize interest rate cuts.
Investors also show caution due to factors in the tech sector: rising costs of debt protection for some corporate issuers increase attention to risks. These macro elements provide context for options positioning and demand for certain strike prices.
Possible Year-End Scenarios
The expiration outcome will largely depend on BTC’s price at settlement. If it moves below the $90,000 range, put options retain the advantage, while a break above $94,000 would weaken bearish positioning and increase the likelihood of call options being exercised.
Between these levels, more neutral or mixed results are possible, with the balance between calls and puts determined by the price corridor BTC settles in at expiration. For more detailed context on positioning, see the material on futures and options and analysis of price reaction after the record expiration.
Why This Matters
For miners, the volume of options and strike concentration are significant through the lens of volatility and liquidity. The large portion of worthless call options increases the likelihood of sharp price moves on the day the market redistributes risk, potentially widening trading spreads on exchanges.
This indirectly affects mining profitability: during heightened volatility, fiat revenues and demand for coin sales may fluctuate short-term, as well as BTC-to-ruble exchange conditions. However, no direct or immediate restrictions or changes to mining infrastructure are expected due to the expiration.
What to Do?
- Assess your operating expenses and liquidity reserves: calculate how long you can keep equipment running if prices fall.
- Monitor BTC price on expiration day and order execution speed; during high volatility, use limit orders to reduce slippage.
- If part of your revenue is bought on the market, plan exchanges in advance—spread sales to minimize the impact of sharp moves on average realization price.
- Read position and futures market overviews to understand liquidity—relevant materials are available in the Bitcoin price forecast section.
In Brief
The $30.3 billion options expiration is a key moment for market risk distribution but does not change your equipment’s technical parameters. The main actions for miners are managing liquidity, monitoring price at expiration, and adjusting sales plans if needed.