DraftKings has officially launched DraftKings Predictions, a regulated real‑money prediction market designed for trading binary outcomes. The product is positioned as a regulated marketplace rather than a conventional sportsbook, and it is registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA). The platform is already available in 38 states, and its contracts settle at $1 if the event occurs or $0 if it does not.
What is DraftKings Predictions?
DraftKings Predictions is a marketplace where users buy and sell contracts based on whether specific events will happen, rather than placing fixed‑odds wagers. Each contract is binary: you buy a “Yes” contract if you expect the event to occur or a “No” contract if you expect it not to occur, and the contract price moves with market sentiment. At settlement a contract pays $1 if the outcome happens or $0 if it does not, making prices directly reflect the market’s collective view.
How the market works — trading mechanics
Trading on DraftKings Predictions involves buying contracts at a market price and selling them later if you choose, so prices can rise or fall before settlement based on new information. The contracts are limited‑liability instruments: the most you can lose on any single contract is the amount you paid for it, which differentiates them from positions with unlimited downside. Participants should also check DraftKings’ fee schedule and settlement timing, since fees and settlement rules affect net returns and when positions close.
Regulation and consumer protections
DraftKings Predictions is registered with the CFTC and the NFA, which requires adherence to financial‑integrity and consumer‑protection standards. As part of these safeguards, the platform segregates customer funds, a measure intended to protect user balances from being commingled with the operator’s operating cash. This regulatory oversight distinguishes DraftKings Predictions from informal or unregulated prediction markets by imposing compliance and supervision requirements.
Availability and scope of events
The service is available in 38 states, giving it a broad initial footprint within the United States. Initial event categories are expected to focus on areas that fit within regulatory guidelines, such as sports, entertainment and financial indices, with specific contracts added over time under CFTC rules. If you want deeper background on how prediction markets have been used for forecasting and market signals, see this markets as indicators overview.
Risks, taxes and user guidance
Trading prediction contracts carries financial risk and should be approached like other information markets rather than casual betting. Prices reflect collective views and can move quickly, so participants should research events before trading and accept that losses are possible up to the amount paid for each contract. In the United States, net profits from prediction‑market trading are generally considered taxable income, so plan accordingly and consult a tax professional for your situation.
Why this matters — industry impact
DraftKings’ entry brings regulated infrastructure and an established platform to real‑money prediction markets, which may increase mainstream visibility and acceptance of this market type. By operating under CFTC/NFA oversight and offering protections like segregated funds, the launch could make prediction trading more approachable for a wider audience. For comparisons with other market entrants and how prediction platforms have tracked crypto outcomes, see our prediction markets overview.
What to do? (Practical steps for miners in Russia)
If you mine in Russia and follow global market developments, treat DraftKings Predictions as an example of regulated product design rather than a service you can directly use without checking local rules. Learn the mechanics of binary contracts, the settlement process and the platform’s fee structure so you can compare it with other marketplaces. Keep financial discipline: diversify small positions, avoid risking more than you can afford, and remember that limited‑liability contracts only cap loss per contract to your stake.
FAQ
Is DraftKings Predictions available in my state? The platform operates in 38 states; check DraftKings’ official channels for the current list of supported jurisdictions. In the United States, state availability governs access.
How is this different from regular sports betting on DraftKings? Sports betting typically uses fixed odds on a wager, while DraftKings Predictions lets you trade binary contracts whose prices fluctuate like assets, and you can buy or sell before settlement.
What events can I trade on? Contracts are binary outcomes and initial categories are expected to include sports, entertainment and financial indices, with the catalog controlled under CFTC rules.
Is my money safe on this platform? As a CFTC‑registered entity, DraftKings Predictions must follow financial integrity standards such as segregating customer funds, which is intended to protect user balances.
Can I lose more than my deposit? No. These are limited‑liability contracts: the maximum loss on any single contract is the amount you paid for it.
Are winnings taxable? Yes. In the United States, net profits from prediction market trading are generally considered taxable income; consult a tax advisor for specifics.
