Alex Thorn, head of proprietary research at Galaxy Digital, stated that 2026 could be one of the most challenging years for forecasting Bitcoin, while the firm remains optimistic about the long-term outlook. In his post on X dated December 21, Thorn referenced Galaxy Research's December 18 report titled "26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026," which outlines the firm's expectations for the crypto market and institutional adoption. According to him, the combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, political risks, and uneven momentum in the crypto market makes the year "too chaotic for predictions." Additionally, Thorn noted that the market is already in a bearish phase and Bitcoin has yet to regain a sustainable bullish trend.
Why 2026 Is Difficult to Forecast for Bitcoin
Thorn attributes the forecasting difficulty to several factors: macroeconomic uncertainty, political risks, and varying recovery speeds among crypto market participants. These conditions create a contrast between the potential for sharp moves and the lack of clear direction, complicating the creation of definitive scenarios. Under such circumstances, different analysts arrive at opposing conclusions, as seen in alternative forecasts — ranging from expectations of a new all-time high to more pessimistic scenarios, including a new peak and a possible drop to $40,000 in 2026.
What Options Markets Indicate
According to Thorn, options pricing reflects a wide range of expectations and roughly equal probabilities for sharply different outcomes. Specifically, he mentioned that traders assign comparable chances to prices around $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, as well as around $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year. This distribution suggests that institutional players are preparing for significant volatility, using options to hedge risks rather than expecting a steady one-directional trend.
Signs of Structural Maturity in the Bitcoin Market
Thorn also pointed to signs of "structural maturity" in the market: Bitcoin's long-term volatility is decreasing, indicating reduced price fluctuation amplitude over extended periods. He explained that part of this effect is linked to the growth of institutional strategies — such as option overwriting and income generation programs — which help soften extreme moves. Finally, Thorn noted that in the volatility smile, it is currently cheaper to buy upside risk than to insure downside risk, a structure closer to mature macro assets like equities and commodities.
Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook
For Galaxy Digital, the focus is less on short-term dynamics and more on Bitcoin's systemic integration into traditional investment frameworks. In their December 18 report, the firm mentioned the possibility of Bitcoin being included in standard asset allocation models, which could provide steady inflows regardless of cycles. Against this backdrop of structural adoption, Galaxy maintains a bullish view and forecasts the potential to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, believing that institutional integration and access products will support demand.
Why This Matters
For a miner in Russia, the current uncertainty means an increased likelihood of sharp fluctuations in mining profitability throughout 2026, even if long-term fundamentals remain positive. Since options markets indicate wide price scenarios, you should expect periods of both high profits and possible drawdowns, planning equipment operation and expenses accordingly. Meanwhile, the decline in long-term volatility and strengthening institutional strategies could gradually make mining returns less extreme, but this does not eliminate short-term risks.
What to Do?
- Recalculate your breakeven point: regularly update cost calculations considering electricity rates, equipment efficiency, and current Bitcoin price.
- Optimize expenses: reduce operating costs where possible and distribute load to withstand periods of low prices.
- Diversify income: consider revenue options beyond mining — for example, selling during more favorable price moments or participating in income generation services if available and understood.
- Risk management: monitor options and futures market dynamics if planning to hedge revenue, and use tools you fully understand.
- Follow institutional signals: news about Bitcoin’s inclusion in model portfolios and growing institutional demand provides context for long-term planning.
If you want to compare different scenarios and estimates for 2026 in more detail, our archive contains materials with alternative forecasts and prediction market analyses that can help build a more comprehensive picture. For example, you can review forecasts about potential price ranges and other perspectives on the market’s future.
