Crypto analyst known as DefiWimar published a detailed analysis asserting that the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle theory has effectively ceased to work. He employed LPPL models and a large dataset: 17 years of BTC history and over 5,600 daily data points, which he says reduces the impact of random coincidences. The approximation results show a coefficient of determination close to 0.98, indicating a highly accurate fit to historical data.
Who is DefiWimar and Why His Analysis Matters
Operating under a pseudonym, DefiWimar presented an extensive quantitative analysis of the Bitcoin market based on long-term models. His conclusions attracted attention because he relies on a broad time series and formulates practical insights about market cycle structures.
What is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Model
The classic 4-year cycle theory assumes recurring phases of growth and correction linked to the halving event and market participant behavior. Many investors have used this concept as a guide to anticipate multiyear downturns before the next bull market begins; however, DefiWimar believes such expectations now often mislead.
DefiWimar's Analytical Methodology
To evaluate the market, the author applied an LPPL model, typically used to analyze bubbles and market overheating phases, and compared it with 17 years of BTC historical data comprising over 5,600 daily points. According to him, this sample size allows assessing the market's position relative to the long-term trend rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations.
The model fitting resulted in a coefficient of determination near 0.98, reflecting a high approximation of the historical series. This forms the basis for the author's further conclusions about the current price-trend divergence.
Current BTC Price and Long-Term Trend
According to DefiWimar's calculations, Bitcoin's current price hovers around $91,480, significantly below the long-term trend value. His model estimates the fair trend price at about $124,492, implying a discount of approximately 26.5% relative to the current price.
Forecasts for 2026 and Beyond
- 2026 may remain volatile and challenging for trading, with sharp corrections and macroeconomic influences.
- In the author's base scenario, a phase of steady expansion could occur between 2027 and 2029.
- Within a long-term expansion scenario, a $250,000 BTC target does not appear extreme and might be considered conservative if expansion materializes.
Conclusions and Recommendations
DefiWimar makes several key observations: first, expecting a "true crash" may lead to missed opportunities since the market sometimes forms a base below the long-term trend. Second, as market capitalization and maturity grow, cycles become more extended and less predictable in timing, so relying strictly on a four-year rhythm can be misleading.
Why This Matters
If you mine with anywhere from one to a thousand devices in Russia, these findings imply the following: relying on rigid expectations of another multiyear downturn might delay decisions about adding or selling capacity. Meanwhile, the significant discount relative to the long-term trend and the model's assessment do not signal immediate growth but only highlight a price-trend divergence.
What to Do?
Practical steps for miners with small to medium equipment fleets should be straightforward and realistic. It's better to focus on risk management rather than waiting for the "perfect" entry point.
- Plan expenses and reserves: account for 2026's volatility and maintain a buffer to cover costs during downturns.
- Divide your strategy: lock in some profits while keeping part exposed to the long-term trend to avoid missing opportunities.
- Don't rely solely on calendar cycles: monitor fundamental price deviations from the trend highlighted in the analysis.
- If needed, read related materials and risk assessments, such as the review of the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, the analysis of Bitcoin risks in 2026, and market target evaluations like the $250,000 target.