Analysts at XWIN Research Japan have concluded that the current capital outflow into traditional safe-haven assets supports rising prices for gold and silver, while Bitcoin's growth potential remains constrained. In recent months, metals have continued their ascent, whereas the leading cryptocurrency has traded sideways and shown weakness amid declining momentum.
Why Are Gold and Silver Rising While Bitcoin Is Not?
Researchers note that some capital is moving into "quiet harbors," directly supporting precious metals' prices and weakening demand for riskier assets. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts further boost interest in defensive instruments, explaining the divergence in market dynamics.
Additionally, it's important that institutional investors find it technically easier to allocate funds to precious metals than to cryptocurrencies—this lowers barriers for capital shifting into metals. A detailed comparison of metals and cryptocurrencies as safe havens can be found in the article Gold vs Bitcoin, which discusses differences in how investors perceive these assets.
Bitcoin as a Highly Volatile Asset
XWIN emphasizes that investors continue to view Bitcoin primarily as a volatile and riskier instrument rather than a "quiet harbor." As a result, during uncertain times, capital tends to flow more into gold and government bonds, while cryptocurrencies receive lower priority.
Unlike precious metals, which rely on a base of long-term holders, Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculative positions. This creates additional vulnerability: during attempts to rise, short-term players may cut losses or break even, intensifying selling pressure.
Indicators of Bitcoin Market Weakness
Data from CryptoQuant points to weakening demand: the Apparent Demand indicator has fallen into negative territory, indicating insufficient new buyers despite high prices. This supports the thesis of weak capital inflow into cryptocurrency.
Additionally, the STH SOPR metric mostly remains below one, meaning short-term holders often sell at a loss or break even, adding further downward pressure on the price. Together, these indicators explain why Bitcoin remains range-bound and weak relative to metals.
Analysts' Forecasts
XWIN outlines a baseline scenario: as long as demand stays low and capital flows into gold and silver, Bitcoin's growth potential will be limited. Researchers believe macro factors alone are insufficient for a sustainable cryptocurrency rally.
A trend reversal, in their view, will require Apparent Demand to return to positive territory and STH SOPR to hold above a critical level, after which selling pressure from short-term holders may ease. It is also worth recalling that the expert known as Clouted noted liquidity exhaustion following a recent crash, further influencing market dynamics.
Why This Matters
If you are a miner with one or several hundred devices, the current market structure may maintain price uncertainty and limit periodic Bitcoin price rallies. This directly affects revenue from selling mined cryptocurrency, especially during periods of weak buyer demand.
It is also important to remember that with speculative positions dominating and pressure from short-term holders, volatility can increase, and attempts at quick price rebounds are often followed by loss-taking—raising operational risks for those planning to sell at target levels.
What to Do?
Manage expenses and regularly review your mining breakeven point, considering that income may remain unstable amid limited Bitcoin growth. Plan coin sales based on current demand to avoid pressure from short-term sell-offs.
It is also useful to monitor key market indicators—primarily Apparent Demand and STH SOPR from CryptoQuant—and analyze profitability and price trends to timely adjust sales volumes or electricity rates. To understand the broader picture and the impact of price levels on market behavior, you can compare this article with the piece on causes and effects of current Bitcoin volatility.