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Why Bitcoin Can't Surpass $90,000 — Causes and Insights

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Why Bitcoin Can't Surpass $90,000 — Causes and Insights

Key Takeaways

  • 1 Bitcoin failed to hold around $90,000, triggering nearly $100 million in liquidations.
  • 2 Investors partly shifted to gold and government bonds; gold prices stayed above $4,300.
  • 3 US 2-year Treasury yields dropped to their lowest since August 2022, making bonds more attractive.
  • 4 US unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, affecting rate expectations.
  • 5 Bitcoin's hashrate declined after late October peak; part of the drop linked to 1.3 GW mining shutdowns in China.
  • 6 VanEck analysts note miner capitulation has historically often preceded price rallies.

Analyzing why Bitcoin failed to break $90,000: nearly $100M liquidations, preference for gold and bonds, hashrate decline, and market risks explained.

Bitcoin again faced strong resistance near the $90,000 mark, leading to nearly $100 million in liquidations among leveraged traders. At the same time, some investors favored traditional hedges — gold and government bonds — which weakened the momentum for a further push toward $100,000. Amid this, gold prices remained above $4,300, and the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since August 2022, shifting demand away from riskier assets.

Why Bitcoin Could Not Surpass $90,000

Strong resistance around $90,000 was accompanied by a wave of liquidations of leveraged positions, intensifying selling pressure and blocking further gains. Additionally, demand for traditional safe-haven assets increased: gold held above $4,300, and declining short-term bond yields made government securities more appealing to some investors. As a result, capital flowed from risk assets into government-backed and physical hedges, preventing a sustained breakout for BTC.

The Impact of Falling Rates on the Bitcoin Market

Declining yields and shifting rate expectations influence the attractiveness of various assets simultaneously, reducing Bitcoin's uniqueness as an "independent" hedge. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November — the highest in four years — complicating the overall macroeconomic picture and affecting monetary policy expectations. Meanwhile, stock market gains — reflected in a new all-time high for the S&P 500 in December — further diminish incentives for some investors to hold BTC as an alternative to equities.

Bitcoin Hashrate Decline: Bearish or Bullish Signal?

Bitcoin's network hashrate decreased after peaking in late October, with reports linking part of this drop to the shutdown of 1.3 GW of mining capacity in China. The hashrate decline intensifies discussions about miners' margin sustainability and liquidity, but VanEck analysts point out that miner capitulation has historically often acted as a contrarian bullish signal. You can read more in our analysis of Bitcoin's price decline causes, which explores the economic drivers behind the price pressure.

Investments in AI and Their Impact on Bitcoin

Part of the investment flow into technology sectors, including significant spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, supports the rise of major IT stocks and reduces some demand for alternative hedges. If tech companies gain additional valuation from AI, this can push index and sector positions higher, lowering the need to seek protection in unconventional assets. In this environment, Bitcoin competes not only with gold and bonds but also with high-risk technology investments.

Forecasts and Risks for Bitcoin in 2026

Maintaining interest in "digital gold" requires a shift in risk perception among institutional and retail players, which may take time. The contraction of multiples for companies with digital reserves and notable discounts to reserves (for example, 16% and 18% for the mentioned issuers) reflect market caution in valuing Bitcoin-related firms. Ultimately, BTC's future trajectory will depend on risk reassessment and capital allocation across asset classes.

Why This Matters

For miners, even seemingly distant market drivers have practical consequences: strong liquidity outflows and price volatility directly affect coin sales and debt servicing capabilities. The hashrate decline and margin pressure mean some market participants may temporarily exit mining, altering the competitive landscape and reward distribution within the network. Understanding these mechanisms helps assess not only profitability but also risks of revenue interruptions and refinancing needs.

What to Do?

If you operate from one to a thousand devices, focus on simple, practical steps to improve mining financial stability without relying on price forecasts:

  • Review leverage usage: minimize credit leverage and monitor liquidation levels to avoid forced sales during price drops.
  • Optimize energy costs: evaluate tariffs and equipment operation modes to reduce operating expenses amid tight margins.
  • Manage liquidity reserves: keep part of your revenue in reserve to cover expenses during low price or hashrate periods.
  • Monitor hashrate and news on capacity shutdowns: hashrate drops affect mining profitability and may impact your operational plans.
  • Explore monetization alternatives: under high risk, consider selling portions of mined BTC at tiered targets to mitigate volatility impact.

Additional materials comparing BTC and gold and current market signals will help deepen your understanding of capital redistribution reasons; see our Bitcoin and Gold analysis for details. Apply these simple measures to reduce operational risks and keep your business stable in the current environment.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do liquidations increase selling pressure on Bitcoin's price?

Liquidations of margin positions trigger automatic market sales, increasing supply and creating additional short-term downward pressure on the price.

How does a hashrate decline affect mining profitability?

A lower hashrate usually reduces mining difficulty, theoretically increasing earnings for remaining miners, but short-term profitability may decline due to capacity shutdowns and higher operational risks.

Should a miner in Russia sell coins during a price drop?

The decision depends on your liquidity and obligations: if you have high fixed costs or loans, it makes sense to keep reserves and plan sales at target levels to avoid forced liquidations.

Tags:

#Bitcoin #BTC #криптовалюта #майнинг #ASIC #Bitmain #Antminer #ликвидация позиций #хеджирование #золото #облигации #S&P 500 #макроэкономика #процентные ставки #рыночная волатильность