CoinMarketCap publishes the Altcoin Season Index, which currently shows a value of 23. This index reflects the share of the top 100 coins over 90 days that have outperformed Bitcoin’s returns, updating in real time for timely market dynamics assessment.
What Is the Altcoin Season Index and Why Is It Important
The Altcoin Season Index is an indicator of altcoins' relative strength compared to Bitcoin based on 90-day returns. A value of 75 or higher formally signals an "altcoin season," while a reading below 25 indicates a "Bitcoin season," when the primary asset leads.
Investors and analysts use this index as a straightforward summary of capital shifts between Bitcoin and the rest of the market, helping to evaluate where market flows concentrate and which asset allocation strategies may be appropriate in the current cycle.
How the Altcoin Season Index Is Calculated
The index methodology is straightforward: it compares the 90-day price performance of each of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization against Bitcoin’s performance over the same period. The result reflects the proportion of coins that have outperformed Bitcoin.
- The index excludes stablecoins like USDT and USDC, as well as wrapped tokens such as WBTC, to avoid distortions.
- Thresholds: 75% and above officially declare an altcoin season; below 25% indicates a Bitcoin season.
- The calculation is continuous and real-time, so the value represents a rolling 90-day snapshot.
Current Index Value: 23 and Its Implications
A reading of 23 clearly signals Bitcoin’s advantage over most altcoins. This means only a small portion of the top 100 coins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, complicating strategies focused solely on altcoins.
For portfolios, this suggests that concentrating on Bitcoin or the most liquid "blue-chip" altcoins is often more justified than broad diversification into smaller altcoins during this period. However, a low index can also present opportunities to accumulate select projects during correction phases.
Historical Context and Market Cycles
The index reached levels signaling altcoin seasons during previous bull runs, with the last sustained period recorded in early 2021. Between these points, leadership cycles alternate: Bitcoin rises first, then capital gradually shifts to altcoins seeking higher returns.
After the 2022 bear market, the overall market structure became more favorable to Bitcoin, reflected in longer periods of low index values. For comparison, similar movements can be seen in related articles on index changes during recent periods, such as the Altcoin Season Index 21 and notes on a slight rise to index 22, as well as a four-point drop to 18 in other periods.
Expert Analysis of the Current Market Structure
Analysts highlight several factors strengthening Bitcoin’s advantage: regulatory uncertainty in 2024–2025, which raises risks for many alt projects; and significant capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, directly increasing Bitcoin demand. These forces collectively create a favorable environment for the primary asset.
Additionally, the ETH/BTC ratio, an indicator of alt strength, remains in a downtrend or consolidation phase, aligning with the low Altcoin Season Index and confirming the overall weakness of altcoins in the current cycle.
Additional Market Health Indicators
Besides the index itself, it’s useful to monitor Bitcoin Dominance—the share of Bitcoin in total market capitalization—and the ETH/BTC ratio to gain a multifaceted market view. These metrics often correlate with the Altcoin Season Index but reflect different aspects: one shows market share, the other relative returns.
A comprehensive analysis of all these indicators provides a more reliable understanding of the market regime than relying on a single measure, as different metrics reveal either capital distribution or price momentum.
What Could Change the Current Dynamics
Key triggers for the index to rise include clear regulatory clarity for alt projects and the potential introduction of spot ETF instruments for other major assets like Ethereum. Additionally, a prolonged sideways phase in Bitcoin’s price could push investors to seek returns in altcoins, initiating gradual capital rotation.
The shift from a "Bitcoin season" to an "altcoin season" usually happens gradually: the index climbs from lows, passes through a neutral zone, and then surpasses the 75 threshold. Therefore, monitoring the index’s movement and related metrics remains critical for timely recognition of regime changes.
Why This Matters
For miners operating between 1 and 1000 machines, knowing that the Altcoin Season Index is 23 helps understand where investor interest and capital currently concentrate. This affects coin price dynamics, liquidity, and the risk of sharp pullbacks in less liquid altcoins, directly impacting mining revenue and the ability to sell mined tokens at acceptable prices.
Moreover, under Bitcoin dominance, rising fees and changing demand for certain coins may alter priorities for selling and storing mined assets. Awareness of the market regime reduces the risk of flawed tactics, such as mass selling at local lows or overexposure to small projects.
What to Do?
If you mine in Russia and manage from one to a thousand machines, consider several practical steps. First, review your policy for converting mined coins: during Bitcoin dominance, it’s advisable to secure profits in the most liquid assets or fiat according to predefined rules to avoid risks from price drops in smaller altcoins.
Second, diversify storage and liquidity: keep part of your funds in the most liquid assets and use set selling targets rather than emotional decisions. Finally, stay updated on regulatory developments and ETF news—these factors directly influence market balance and can change the risk/reward profile for altcoins.
An Altcoin Season Index at 23 is not a verdict of no opportunities but a clear signal of the current market regime. Understanding the calculation methodology and related indicators will help make more informed decisions in managing mining operations and handling revenues.