Supply in Profit represents the share of bitcoins currently held at a profit by their owners. This metric serves as an on-chain indicator to assess the stage of the market cycle and helps distinguish phases of euphoria, transition, and bottom formation. At the time of publication, Supply in Profit stands at 68.85%, confidently positioned within the transitional zone between growth and decline.
What is Supply in Profit and Its Significance
The indicator shows what portion of the BTC supply was acquired below the current price and is therefore profitable. This is important for gauging market psychology: a high share of coins in profit usually coincides with increased willingness to sell at euphoric peaks, while low values point to periods of capitulation or bottom formation.
According to the accepted classification, values above 80% correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55%–80% range is considered a transitional zone between growth and decline, and values below 55% are traditionally associated with a bear market or bottom formation phase.
Current State of the BTC Market
Currently, Supply in Profit is 68.85%, placing the market in the transitional zone and indicating uncertainty between continued growth and the start of a decline. At the same time, the indicator has entered a sustained downtrend since October 2025: this is not a one-time correction but a multi-month consecutive decline, signaling a change in the market's internal dynamics.
Changes in on-chain metrics are complemented by signs of weakening internal network and market indicators, as well as external influencing factors. For details on behavioral and flow on-chain signals, refer to the material on on-chain data and accumulation, which examines related trends.
Factors Influencing the BTC Market
- Geopolitical risks that maintain uncertainty across a broad range of assets and affect demand.
- Growing interest in defensive assets, shifting capital allocation between risky and safe instruments.
- Weakening internal network and market indicators, including pressure on demand and liquidity; similar effects are discussed in the review on selling pressure.
Possible BTC Market Development Scenarios
One scenario is continued consolidation and gradual transition into a broader bear phase if Supply in Profit remains around ~70% and does not resume growth. Historically, such dynamics have been accompanied by increased participant doubts and reduced internal market activity.
An alternative scenario involves a reversal of the indicator’s direction and a return to growth with recovery above the 75%–80% range; in this case, the likelihood of extending the bull cycle remains. Both scenarios are directly linked to holder behavior and overall demand conditions, making it important to monitor changes in on-chain signals and liquidity flows.
Why This Matters
For miners, the Supply in Profit metric helps understand market sentiment and potential volatility. If the market enters a bear phase, it may be accompanied by price pressure and reduced mining profitability, especially with high electricity and equipment maintenance costs.
During ongoing transitional consolidation, it is important to consider that changes in on-chain metrics reflect holder behavior and liquidity, not just short-term price fluctuations. This influences decisions regarding power allocation, adding machines, and cost planning.
What to Do?
- Review your farm economics: compare electricity and maintenance expenses with current mining profitability and optimize equipment operation if necessary.
- Monitor on-chain signals and liquidity flows to understand shifts in supply and demand; it is helpful to correlate this data with key price level analysis.
- Consider flexible power management scenarios: have action plans ready for increased volatility, including load reduction or resource relocation if profitability worsens.