The year 2025 ended with a series of events that will set the tone for the market in 2026. Key developments included regulatory actions and sharp market shocks—from the Federal Reserve's reserve management program to major liquidations in spot and margin markets. These events changed institutional players' perception of crypto assets and led to a new wave of regulation, including in Russia.
Main Events of 2025 for the Crypto Market
Below are the most significant factors that market participants and analysts identified as defining the past year. These events are frequently cited in expert commentary as starting points for discussions about 2026.
- The launch of the US Federal Reserve's reserve management program, including Treasury bill purchases.
- The margin liquidation cascade on October 11, totaling approximately $19.35 billion and impacting over 1.6 million traders.
- The final approval of spot crypto ETFs as legitimate instruments in traditional finance.
- The introduction in Russia of an operational legal framework for miners and reporting requirements.
These events had both market and institutional impacts: from liquidity inflows and shifts in demand structure to increased regulatory focus on operations and reporting. For a detailed analysis of 2025 lessons, see the article with key lessons from 2025, which discusses practical takeaways for market participants.
Expectations for 2026
Experts anticipate that 2026 will bring less technological breakthroughs and more changes in the role of cryptocurrencies within the financial system alongside stronger regulatory practices. Further integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance is expected, as well as practical implementation of US laws including the GENIUS Act for stablecoins.
- Deepening synergy between traditional finance and the crypto industry, altering institutional market access.
- Implementation of GENIUS requirements for reserve backing and disclosure for stablecoins.
- Increased regulatory pressure and control practices, including AML/KYC compliance.
- Potential political influence on cryptocurrency prices from public figures and administrative resources.
- Development of central bank digital currencies and new regulations in Russia, including discussions on fines for cryptocurrency payments.
For an analysis of potential threats and vulnerabilities, refer to the article on risks to Bitcoin, which thoroughly examines macro and geopolitical factors affecting crypto assets.
Expert Opinions on the Future of Cryptocurrencies
Experts focus on several themes: Bitcoin's role as a store of value, the impact of regulation on liquidity and demand, and prospects for asset tokenization. Many note that institutions have restructured their approach to crypto and now expect stable rules and transparent reserves for stablecoins.
Analysts also emphasize that the absence of an anticipated altcoin season and capital redistribution into defensive assets have changed market participant behavior. They believe this encourages the development of real tokenization use cases and real-world assets (RWA), alongside stronger transparency requirements for projects.
Regulatory Changes and Their Impact
Regulators across jurisdictions have begun implementing or enforcing new rules aimed at reducing uncertainty and enhancing investor protection. In the US, stablecoin regulations and the legitimization of spot ETFs have lowered regulatory risks for major players and banks.
In Russia, 2025 marked the introduction of mining and reporting regulations; further measures are under discussion, including licensing of exchanges and wallets, enhanced client identification, and digital compliance. Plans are also emerging for administrative restrictions on cryptocurrency payments and potential fines.
Why This Matters
If you mine in Russia, regulatory changes directly affect your daily business: reporting and identification requirements increase administrative burdens, while proposed restrictions on crypto payments alter channels for monetizing mined assets. Meanwhile, discussions about the digital ruble and stronger AML procedures raise the risk that some transactions will become harder to process through Russian payment routes.
Market shocks like the mass liquidations on October 11 demonstrate that volatility can sharply impact asset prices and liquidity. Even if you mine a small number of devices, large capital movements and interventions by major players or politicians can affect profitability and the ability to sell quickly.
The legitimization of spot ETFs and the rollout of stablecoin rules in the US are changing demand structures and institutional trust. For miners, this means new opportunities for long-term BTC demand as well as the need to be prepared for increased transparency when interacting with exchanges and payment providers.
What to Do?
Below are practical steps miners in Russia with 1–1000 devices should consider. These recommendations aim to reduce regulatory, operational, and market risks without speculating on the future.
- Maintain records and keep documentation. Prepare equipment capacity, mining output, and expense reports to comply with reporting and identification requirements.
- Review cryptocurrency monetization channels. Explore legal selling options through available foreign services and assess related administrative steps and risks.
- Enhance focus on AML/KYC. Organize processes that allow quick and transparent verification of fund origins to minimize blocking risks on major platforms.
- Diversify risks. Consider spreading revenue across different assets and storage methods to reduce the impact of sharp price swings.
- Monitor regulatory changes. Stay in touch with legal advisors or specialized communities to respond promptly to licensing and new rules.
These steps will help maintain flexibility and compliance with new requirements without taking excessive risks. If uncertain about legal or tax implications, it is best to seek specialized advice tailored to your specific scale and business model.