Cryptocurrencies lagged behind gold and stocks at the end of the year: since early November, gold gained 9%, the S&P 500 index rose 1%, while Bitcoin dropped 20%, trading around $88,000. Analytics platform Santiment highlights this divergence and points out that 2026 could present an opportunity for crypto to "catch up" with other asset classes. New data on large holders' behavior and address activity provide more signs to watch but do not offer a definitive trend signal.
Cryptocurrency Lagging Behind Gold and Stocks in 2025
Santiment emphasizes that cryptocurrency's correlation with broader sectors remains weaker than that of gold and the stock market. During the period analyzed, gold rose 9%, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and Bitcoin lost 20%, underscoring the performance gap between assets. Santiment analysts believe there is still a chance in 2026 for cryptocurrency to attempt to narrow this gap.
The Role of Large Cryptocurrency Holders
Santiment notes a slowdown in accumulation by major players in the second half of 2025, which is important for liquidity and market perception. Long-term Bitcoin holders stopped active selling: their positions decreased from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December, after which outflows paused. Such changes in "whales" and long-term holders' behavior often influence market psychology and volatility.
For a broader view of market participants' positioning, see the materials on Bitfinex Whales, which examine large stakes and their possible market impact.
Signs of Renewed Interest in Cryptocurrency
Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin suggested traders have already begun reallocating capital from other sectors back into cryptocurrency, noting capital rotation between assets. Meanwhile, Nansen data shows a 5.51% increase in active Bitcoin addresses over the past 24 hours alongside nearly a 30% drop in transaction count, indicating a shift in network activity character.
Forecasts and Analysis for 2026
Santiment provides an analytical assessment that 2026 could offer cryptocurrency a chance to "catch up" with gold and stocks if conditions turn favorable for digital assets. Analyst CyrilXBT described the market as being in a "classic late cycle before a shift," serving as another signal to monitor participant positioning. For discussion on institutional factors and their role in trend formation, see the article on institutional factors.
Why This Matters
Whether you are a miner in Russia with a small setup or hundreds of rigs, the performance gap between assets directly affects revenue through Bitcoin’s price. Meanwhile, actions of large holders and changes in address activity reflect liquidity and potential volatility, which are important for planning coin sales. Even if these updates don’t alter your daily mining, monitoring such signals helps make informed decisions on storage, sales, and operational expenses.
What to Do?
Practical steps for miners—brief and to the point. Focus on cost control and monitoring key network and market metrics to respond faster to changes. Below is a checklist of actions you can take now.
- Track price and sales volume: set threshold levels for selling mined coins, considering current electricity costs and profitability.
- Monitor whale and long-term holder behavior: changes in accumulation and positions can affect liquidity and short-term volatility.
- Follow on-chain metrics like active addresses and transaction counts (Nansen) to observe shifts in network activity.
- Optimize expenses: check equipment efficiency, tariffs, and cooling schemes to reduce mining costs.
- Maintain reserves and plan for different scenarios: allocate mined coins between reserves and sales according to predefined rules.
FAQ
What did Santiment say about 2026? Santiment noted that cryptocurrency lags behind gold and the S&P 500, but in 2026 there remains a chance for crypto to "catch up" with other assets. This assessment is based on comparing price dynamics and large holder behavior.
What data did Nansen show? According to Nansen, the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.51% in the last 24 hours, while the number of transactions decreased by nearly 30%, indicating a change in network activity character.
What do whale and long-term holder actions mean? Santiment reports that large holders slowed accumulation in the second half of 2025, and long-term holders reduced positions from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July to 14.3 million in December and paused selling. These movements affect liquidity and market sentiment.