Experts at XWIN Research Japan note that Bitcoin is currently in a sideways phase following a recent decline, with downward pressure remaining dominant. A key indicator—the Short Term Holder SOPR—has consistently stayed below 1 in recent weeks, signaling that short-term holders are more often realizing losses rather than profits. According to analysts, the current selling pressure is driven primarily by loss realization rather than widespread profit-taking.
Analysis of the Current BTC Market Situation
The market’s sideways profile combines with a prevailing bias toward selling, evident in the behavior of short-term holders and the associated STH-SOPR. The indicator remaining consistently below 1 is a direct signal of realized losses among those holding coins for a short duration. For additional context on technical network metrics, see the article on Bitcoin network indicators, which reviews related metrics.
Reasons Behind Short-Term Holder Losses
XWIN highlights that during the current period, short-term holders are realizing losses instead of profits, creating the main selling pressure. Previously, in the December cycles of 2022–2024, average monthly STH-SOPR values hovered slightly above 1, with dips below 1 being brief and partly explained by position rebalancing and tax factors. A comparison with December 2024 can be found in the December 2024 market review, which describes typical calendar effects.
December 2025 Specifics
December 2025 stands out, according to XWIN, as STH-SOPR structurally remains below 1 even on a monthly horizon, fluctuating between 0.97 and 0.99. This indicator behavior suggests that calendar effects alone do not explain the current market weakness, and XWIN associates this with the cycle phase. As a result, selling pressure appears more sustained than in typical December periods of recent years.
Factors Influencing the BTC Market
Analysts point to several factors amplifying the effect of realized losses. These include the negative price trend since the start of the year, a high cost basis among short-term holders formed during active buying following the ETF launch, and ongoing reductions in derivative market positions. These combined factors lead to forced selling and increased realized losses, sustaining the current selling pressure.
Forecasts and Development Scenarios
XWIN emphasizes that long-term holders largely remain inactive, with limited movement of older coins, indicating no broad distribution phase. Historically, such conditions often occur near the exhaustion of selling pressure. However, the baseline scenario for analysts remains continued range-bound trading. In the near term, XWIN expects the market to stay sideways, where loss realization by short-term holders maintains downward pressure on price.
Why This Matters
For miners with small-scale equipment pools (1–1000 devices), the nature of the pressure is important: if sellers are realizing losses, it supports volatility and complicates revenue planning. Meanwhile, the inactivity of long-term holders means no sharp mass sell-offs from large holders are currently observed, reducing the risk of large-scale distribution. Understanding that the current weakness is tied to loss realization helps assess how sustainable the short-term low price levels might be.
What to Do?
- Monitor STH-SOPR and other realized metrics to understand whether loss realization is intensifying or showing signs of exhaustion.
- Consider a flexible selling strategy: stagger withdrawals and avoid large sales during periods of heightened pressure.
- Optimize operating expenses and reserve funds to cover revenue downturns, enabling endurance through sideways markets.
- Track the movement of older coins and long-term holder activity, as their behavior influences the risk of distribution phases in the market.
If needed, we can prepare a brief guide on monitoring STH-SOPR and other key metrics tailored for owners of small mining farms.