The Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) based on the 14-day exponential moving average has dropped to −0.9, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. This value reflects a sharp reduction in BTC transfers from miners' wallets to exchanges and indicates decreased selling from this market segment. At current prices around $87,300, the decline in miner activity occurs alongside a price correction, yet there are no signs of mass capitulation among mining companies. Instead of taking profits, miners show a tendency to hold coins, anticipating more favorable selling conditions.
What Is the Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI)?
Definition of MPI and Its Market Significance
MPI is a metric that measures miners' net position relative to their usual volumes of sales and transfers to exchanges. It helps assess how actively miners convert mined BTC into market liquidity and serves as an indicator of selling pressure. Deeply negative MPI values typically signal reduced selling activity from miners, while positive values indicate increased selling pressure.
How MPI Is Calculated and What a −0.9 Value Means
This report refers to the 14-day EMA of MPI, meaning a smoothed two-week trend that reduces short-term noise. A value of −0.9 indicates that miners’ transfer volumes to exchanges are significantly below their annual average levels, which can be interpreted as near-complete inactivity in profit-taking. Historically, similar deeply negative values coincided with periods when selling pressure eased after major sell-offs.
Relationship Between MPI and Miner Market Activity
When miners reduce transfers to exchanges, a portion of market supply becomes less accessible, altering the supply-demand balance. In such conditions, reduced selling from miners can help stabilize prices because a significant share of supply is effectively removed from circulation. This behavior is reflected in the current negative MPI and miners’ tendency to hold coins.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
Price Levels and Dynamics
The text notes that Bitcoin prices hover around $87,300, substantially below recent highs near $125,000. Amid this correction, miner transfer activity to exchanges has declined, increasing the influence of other factors on price formation. Importantly, this dynamic shows no signs of mass capitulation among miners: they are not rushing to sell at current levels.
Reasons for Decreased Miner Activity
The decrease in activity is measured by reduced BTC transfers to exchanges and reflected in the MPI value. This reduction coincides with the price correction, and according to indicators, miners prefer to hold coins while awaiting more favorable profit-taking levels. The behavior and accumulation reasons of miners are further explored in the article why miners accumulate, linked here for additional context.
No Signs of Capitulation
Despite volatility and price declines, there is no evidence of mass sell-offs by miners typically associated with capitulation. This is confirmed by the low MPI value: sales are significantly below average levels. As a result, the mining segment has temporarily "fallen out" of the supply structure, which may influence future market dynamics.
Impact of Reduced Miner Selling on the Market
How Reduced Selling Affects Bitcoin Supply
When miners cut back transfers to exchanges, the available supply volume decreases relative to their usual selling levels. This means that even amid ongoing volatility, one key liquidity source is weakened, leaving other sellers and buyers to determine price. This scenario shifts the balance and gives the market a chance to ease selling pressure.
Potential Consequences for Price Stability
Historically, the deeply negative MPI values described have sometimes coincided with local price bottoms followed by recoveries. Currently, the lack of significant miner selling may support prices and contribute to forming a more stable price base. However, the text does not claim guaranteed outcomes, only noting the possibility of reduced selling pressure from miners.
Context of Metrics and Data
Additional metrics confirm the decline in selling pressure and changes in miner behavior, as reflected in recent market reports. For comparison and further data, see the article on reduced BTC miner selling pressure, which discusses related metrics and their interpretation.
Miners’ Forecasts and Expectations
Why Miners Are Holding Coins
The original material explicitly states that miners tend to hold coins, preferring not to sell at current prices. This behavior is explained by expectations of more favorable price levels for profit-taking and a desire to avoid selling at less advantageous rates. Consequently, miners reduce transfer operations to exchanges, reflected in the negative MPI.
Possible Market Development Scenarios
The document notes that with reduced miner selling, the market has a chance to stabilize and potentially recover. However, it does not provide specific forecasts, limiting itself to stating that decreased selling pressure may support prices and help form a more sustainable price base. Exact future scenarios are not detailed in the source material.
Why This Matters
For a miner operating one to a hundred devices, reduced selling from large miners lowers supply-side competition and potentially reduces short-term price pressure. This does not guarantee price increases but creates conditions where volatility may be less dominant in market balance. Additionally, understanding MPI and miner behavior aids in making more informed decisions about prioritizing between selling and accumulation.
What to Do?
Below is a practical set of steps for miners in Russia with 1–1000 devices: these recommendations help navigate the situation of reduced selling by other miners and stay within the facts presented.
- Regularly monitor MPI and BTC price: track the 14-day EMA MPI and price quotes to understand if low miner selling activity persists.
- Consider staged profit-taking: if planning to sell, split the volume into parts and sell gradually to avoid short-term volatility impacts.
- Evaluate operational costs: check mining profitability at current prices and factor in electricity and maintenance costs when deciding to sell or hold.
- Keep a reserve stock: when large-scale miners reduce selling, it makes sense to retain some BTC accumulation if it aligns with your strategy.