Bitcoin failed to hold above the $90,000 level at the start of the last week of 2025, despite briefly rising above this mark. Against this backdrop, major players on Bitfinex are increasing their longs: their positions are now at nearly a two-year high, with a local peak observed since mid-February. An additional uncertainty factor was Friday's $24 billion options expiry, which could have increased short-term volatility.
Bitcoin Market Overview in the Last Week of 2025
Volatility returned to the market ahead of the year-end close, and attempts to turn $90,000 into solid support have so far been unsuccessful. Traders and analysts highlighted nearby resistance and support levels as important reference points for the start of 2026: among these, CrypNuevo named $94,300 and $100,000. Increased activity in options positions was also noted, raising the likelihood of sharp price movements in the coming weeks.
Whale Activity on Bitfinex
Contrary to the overall pessimistic sentiment, whales on Bitfinex have increased their long positions and currently hold them at the highest levels in nearly two years; locally, this is the highest since mid-February. Analysts point out that such accumulation of long positions by large participants is often seen as a signal of long-term positioning rather than a short-term speculative spike. A detailed market analysis and comparison with the behavior of major players can be found in the article on Bitcoin and gold, where related signals are explored.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The realized price of short-term holders (STHs), according to Glassnode, stands at $99,785 — a level that often serves as a support benchmark in a bull market. Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the 20-day simple moving average, located around $89,400 at the time of analysis, considering its breakout an important marker for a market trend change. CrypNuevo added $94,300 and $100,000 to the list of key resistance levels to watch in the near term.
Macroeconomic Factors and Their Impact
Amid the year-end market close, participants' attention is focused on how regulatory decisions and monetary policy might affect risk assets. Meanwhile, gold and silver showed strong volatility and growth at year-end, with observers noting the BTC-to-silver ratio dropping to 1,104, its lowest since September 2023. The influence of macro factors remains an uncertainty element that can amplify intraday cryptocurrency fluctuations.
2025 Summary and Forecasts
In 2025, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,200 just two months ago; however, the subsequent pullback significantly dampened market sentiment. A key technical marker remains the annual close: if it occurs below $95,500, it will be the first "red" close in a post-halving year, discussed as a potential indicator of a structural trend change. For a more detailed analysis of short-term price signals, see the Bitcoin price analysis this week.
Why This Matters
If you mine with a single rig or manage a farm of up to 1,000 machines in Russia, the actions of large players and key price levels influence volatility and liquidity expectations, even if your fundamental operating conditions remain unchanged. High whale longs and major options expiries can trigger rapid price spikes, affecting profitability during short holdings and when using leverage on spot/derivative markets. Understanding where realized prices and moving averages lie helps assess the likelihood of pullbacks and when stable demand for held coins might occur.
What to Do?
- Monitor the realized price of short-term holders ($99,785) and the 20-day SMA (~$89,400) as markers of possible support or trend changes.
- Consider that large options expiries (e.g., $24 billion) can cause short-term volatility — plan maintenance and farm restarts outside expected spikes.
- If using leverage or trading derivatives, assess liquidation risks and keep liquidity reserves to handle sharp moves.
- Document your expenses and breakeven points in fiat to make quicker decisions on equipment priorities during strong pullbacks.
- Maintain monitoring of major participants' positions and key analytical signals to adapt operational decisions as the market picture evolves.
This publication is not investment advice. Equipment and financial position management decisions should be made based on your own risk assessment and current conditions.