CryptoQuant has recorded unusual activity on Bitcoin spot markets in early 2025: analytics show growth in average order size and systematic outflows from exchanges. According to the firm, the acceleration of accumulation by large holders began in February 2025 and sustained momentum through March, collectively indicating an active "whale" buying phase. CEO Ju Ki-young emphasizes in his analysis that these patterns are observed through a combination of metrics rather than a single indicator.
What Is the Bitcoin Whale Buying Phase?
Definition of "Whales" in Cryptocurrency
"Whales" typically refer to addresses or players holding large volumes of Bitcoin, capable of influencing the market through sizable transactions. These participants conduct trades significantly larger than typical retail investors, making their activity noticeable in aggregated metrics.
How CryptoQuant Detects Whale Activity
CryptoQuant employs a set of on-chain metrics, including average order size, fund flows from exchanges, wallet size distribution, and miner behavior, to distinguish coordinated accumulation from retail purchases. The report notes that combining multiple indicators provides a more reliable picture than analyzing a single metric in isolation.
Why Whale Purchases Matter for the Market
Accumulation by large holders reduces the available supply on exchanges and shifts the supply-demand balance, historically preceding significant price growth periods. While buying alone does not guarantee specific outcomes, it serves as an important signal of deep-pocketed market behavior.
CryptoQuant Data on Current Whale Activity
Increase in Average Order Size
The aggregated average order size metric showed consistent growth in early 2025, indicating trades larger than those typically made by retail investors. This is one of the key indicators CryptoQuant uses to identify accumulation phases.
Acceleration of Accumulation Since February 2025
Company data indicates that accumulation acceleration began in February 2025 and continued through March, confirming the persistence of large holders’ strategies. Simultaneously, outflows from exchanges to private wallets are observed, interpreted as intent to hold assets long-term.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
The analysis draws historical parallels: similar accumulation patterns were seen at the end of 2020 before the significant 2021 rally. The report notes the current phase appears more gradual, linked to institutional participation and changing market structure.
Bitcoin Market Phases According to CryptoQuant
Six-Phase Model
The analysis uses a six-phase market model describing transitions from retail panic and capitulation to accumulation by large players and subsequent growth. According to CryptoQuant, this stepwise approach helps interpret combined on-chain signals within the market cycle context.
Shift from Retail Capitulation to Whale Accumulation
The firm states markets recently moved from retail capitulation to whale accumulation phases, typically accompanied by reduced exchange supply and more cautious, distributed buying by large holders. This phase shift suggests the current landscape structurally differs from earlier cycles.
Impact on Bitcoin Price
Historically, accumulation by large holders preceded strong price increases; however, analysts stress that on-chain signals alone do not guarantee precise price outcomes. Nevertheless, the combination of accumulation and exchange balance reduction is viewed as a factor potentially supporting subsequent supply-demand dynamics.
Historical Precedents and Macroeconomic Factors
Similarities with Previous Cycles
The report provides comparative examples: similar accumulation patterns were recorded in 2018–2019 and 2020, preceding recovery and subsequent bull cycles. Such parallels offer context for interpreting current on-chain signals and assessing possible development scenarios.
Impact of the 2024 Halving
CryptoQuant notes the 2024 halving traditionally imposes supply constraints, and large holders may have been building positions in anticipation of shifts in supply-demand balance. This factor is among the explanations for current large investor behavior.
Role of Institutional Investors
Growing institutional participation affects accumulation character: trades appear more gradual and distributed, distinguishing the current phase from sharper accumulations of earlier cycles. Institutional entries and improved infrastructure alter market activity profiles.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia with any number of devices, the observed accumulation phase signals a shift in Bitcoin market supply-demand dynamics, as large holders reduce liquid supply on exchanges. Coin withdrawals to personal wallets indicate intent to hold assets longer rather than quick selling, which changes price behavior during external shocks.
What to Do?
Ju Ki-young recommends maintaining positions during accumulation phases rather than attempting to time short-term reversals. For miners, this means adopting a disciplined approach focused on risk awareness rather than frequent speculative attempts.
- Monitor exchange outflows and wallet distribution — steady withdrawals to private wallets may signal long-term holding intentions.
- Ensure storage security: if you plan to hold mined Bitcoin, use trusted cold wallets and backup keys.
- Develop a risk management plan: define an acceptable Bitcoin share in your assets and adhere to it to avoid exposing your business to high volatility.
For more details on how large transfers shift market balance, see the article on large withdrawals from FalconX, and on market structure changes due to new whales — the piece on new Bitcoin whales. Also useful is the analysis of recent large exchange inflows, such as the 5,152 BTC transfer to Binance, to observe input-output balances.
FAQ
What is a "whale" in the context of Bitcoin?
A "whale" is an address or participant holding large Bitcoin volumes whose trades significantly exceed average retail transactions and can influence liquidity and short-term price dynamics.
How does CryptoQuant detect whale activity?
The firm analyzes multiple on-chain metrics: average order size, exchange flows, wallet size distribution changes, and miner behavior to differentiate large coordinated purchases from retail operations.
Does accumulation guarantee price growth?
Accumulation has historically preceded growth periods but does not guarantee specific price outcomes, as other factors like regulations and macro conditions also impact the market.
How should a miner with a small rig respond?
It is recommended to monitor on-chain signals and exchange outflows, ensure secure storage of mined Bitcoin, and have a risk management plan rather than attempting short-term market timing.