The Bitcoin (BTC) price showed confident growth, but this movement is accompanied by a decline in the Coinbase Premium index. Such a drop in the premium is traditionally interpreted as a sign of weak participation of US capital in the current price rise. The expert also noted low trading volumes on South Korea's Upbit exchange, adding a note of caution to the overall positive sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Growth Without Support from US Investors
The price increase is observed alongside a decline in Coinbase Premium, indicating a lack of active demand from US investors. The drop in Coinbase Premium is traditionally seen as a signal of weak participation of American capital in the current Bitcoin price movement, which reduces the reliability of a one-sided impulse. At the same time, low volumes on Upbit suggest that liquidity in certain regions remains limited, potentially increasing volatility during sharp entries or exits.
Main Factors Influencing the Current Rise
Analysts note that the main part of the current momentum is primarily formed by the Asian region, including China, rather than the US. The absence of noticeable demand on Coinbase means the rise occurs with weak support from American buyers, leaving the situation vulnerable until purchases return to this platform. Under such conditions, any resumption of active buying on Coinbase could significantly change the price dynamics.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
The $100,000 level serves as key resistance for Bitcoin; approaching this level increases the likelihood of profit-taking. According to the analyst's estimates, the average entry price of new whales holding less than 155 days is around $100,500, making this zone a "break-even level" for them, which intensifies selling pressure as the price nears $100,000. More details on the reasons for profit-taking and obstacles to price consolidation can be found in the article on why Bitcoin cannot hold above certain levels.
On the other hand, on Binance's spot market, the average cost basis is approximately $56,000, concentrating significant volume; in a bearish scenario, this zone may act as a deep support area. It is also important that the average entry price of long-term whales holding more than 155 days is near $40,000, which partly explains recent profit-taking, as the current yield for this group is considered sufficient.
Forecasts and Possible Market Scenarios
Analysts emphasize that the growth cannot be considered fully reliable without the return of purchases on Coinbase: changes in activity on this exchange can shift the balance of power between buyers and sellers. As the price approaches the $100,000 level, the risk of mass selling by recent buyers increases, potentially leading to a correction. In the event of a strong sell-off, the area around $56,000 is viewed as important support due to volume concentration on Binance.
Why This Matters
For a miner in Russia with a small equipment fleet (from 1 to 1000 devices), this picture is important because Bitcoin's price directly affects income in rubles when selling mined coins. The decline in US participation and low liquidity in certain exchange segments mean that even with price growth, the likelihood of a sharp correction remains higher than with broad and balanced buyer participation.
Additionally, the concentration of purchase cost among Binance users around $56,000 and the entry of long-term whales near $40,000 create zones where the price may stall or pull back. For miners, this means that the timing of selling mined BTC and revenue withdrawal strategies require greater caution—especially if relying on short-term growth.
What to Do?
- Monitor the Coinbase Premium index and volumes on Upbit—this will signal changes in demand geography and liquidity.
- Determine your own exit levels: keep in mind that new whales entered around $100,500, and the support zone is concentrated near $56,000.
- Maintain reserves for electricity and maintenance payments to withstand potential price dips without forced sales at low prices.
- Consider partial profit-taking upon reaching personal goals rather than trying to catch the market peak.
If you want to delve deeper into institutional demand and its impact on price, the article on the reduction of institutional investor investments is useful, where the mechanisms of large players' influence on BTC dynamics are analyzed in detail.