On December 26, Bitcoin increased by more than 2%, and this growth continued into the Asian trading session. At the same time, the market was closely watching a major options expiry, which could have intensified short-term volatility and position reshuffling.
Bitcoin Price Dynamics
Before Wall Street opened, market participants focused on the expiry of Bitcoin options worth nearly $24 billion, viewed as a potential "reset" for the price. As the price approached the psychologically significant $90,000 level, liquidations exceeding $200 million occurred within 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, amplifying fluctuations in both directions.
Alongside BTC's movement, gold and silver hit new highs, with silver surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization to become the world's third-largest asset. This dynamic adds context to market decisions and capital allocation among assets.
Market Analysis and Forecasts
Some participants discussed how options behavior influences Bitcoin's "organic" price movement and its future prospects. Publications also referenced opinions of certain analysts regarding long-term price targets; one such viewpoint can be found in Arthur Hayes' opinion.
Analysts pointed to shifting sentiment and the possibility of liquidity returning in the coming months, which they also relate to record highs in precious metals. These expectations remain a subject of market discussion and depend on the actions of major players and trading volumes.
Technical Analysis
In the short term, Bitcoin remains in a sideways trend, with key reference points being moving average levels. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) are at $91,458 and $92,651 respectively, providing insight into current investor interest ranges.
Daily closes are considered the "key" to potential breakouts up or down, with details on position holding and battles around levels described in materials about attempts to hold above $90,000. The scale of liquidations and moving average placements help assess short-term movement risks.
Why This Matters
If you mine with multiple rigs, news about large expiries and liquidations signals increased volatility that can unexpectedly change Bitcoin's exchange rate against the ruble. Price fluctuations affect revenue from selling mined coins and equipment payback periods, even if the network's hash rate remains unchanged.
Additionally, growing interest in silver and gold shifts capital distribution in the market, potentially influencing BTC price through inflows or outflows. For miners, this is important when planning sales, reinvestments in equipment, and managing liquidity on accounts.
What to Do?
- Create a sales plan: set target price levels and coin volumes to sell during sharp moves to reduce the risk of unfavorable conversion.
- Manage reserves: keep part of your payouts in reserve to cover operational expenses during sudden fluctuations and avoid forced sales at a loss.
- Monitor technical analysis: consider the 50-day SMA and EMA ($91,458 and $92,651) when making conversion decisions and avoid relying solely on short-term impulses.
- Plan maintenance: use periods of increased volatility for scheduled technical servicing to maintain efficiency during high price pressure.
- Read related materials: for details on liquidations and volatility, review analytics on mass position closures about mass liquidations to understand market risks.