Bitcoin and major altcoins have reversed from resistance levels, indicating ongoing sell-offs on rallies and an overall negative market sentiment. Bitcoin failed to hold above $90,000, and brief attempts by buyers to push the price higher met with active selling at elevated levels. At the same time, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs turned negative, and the 30-day SMA of active addresses dropped to 807,000 — reflecting weakening interest from both institutional investors and short-term retail participants.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview
The market is currently characterized by every price relief being sold: major coins fail to overcome nearby resistance and show weakness on rebounds. This is evident as buyers fail to hold levels above key EMAs and SMAs, resulting in bears attempting to push prices down. In such conditions, it is important to monitor not only price levels but also flow behavior and address activity to understand the sustainability of demand.
Moreover, the decline of the 30-day SMA of inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs to negative values indicates reduced institutional and retail capital inflows, exacerbating market tension. For those interested in the reasons and details behind the latest resistance attempts, see the brief analysis of $90,000, which discusses key barriers for BTC. Simultaneously, the drop in active addresses to 807,000 strengthens the argument for a temporary stagnation in market demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast
Buyers made several attempts to push the price above the 20-day EMA, but long candle wicks indicate significant selling pressure at higher levels. Bears will aim to pull the price down to the key support at $84,000, which market observers consider an important defense line for bulls.
If a bounce occurs from $84,000 with subsequent consolidation above the 20-day EMA, a range between $84,000 and $94,589 could form in the near term. Conversely, a break below $84,000 would open the way for deeper declines with potential targets below this level. For a detailed breakdown of scenarios and risks, see the Bitcoin price forecast.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecast
Ethereum broke above the 20-day EMA but failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day SMA of $3,088, indicating limited strength among bulls. Bears are trying to push the price below the support line of the symmetrical triangle; if successful, the pair could drop to support levels around $2,623 and $2,373.
If the opposite occurs and there is a confident close above resistance, trading within the triangle could resume. However, this requires closing above key moving averages and increased buyer activity. Watch for price consolidation and changes in ETF flows, which have already turned negative on the 30-day SMA.
Altcoin Price Forecasts
- BNB. The coin reversed from the 20-day EMA ($865), indicating sell-offs on rallies; the pair risks breaking the ascending trendline and falling below $790 if selling pressure intensifies.
- XRP. Continued decline toward the support line of the descending channel, with $1.61 expected to be defended by bulls, but a bear victory could lead to further drops.
- Solana (SOL). SOL failed to surpass the 20-day EMA ($128), risking a drop below $116 amid ongoing sell-offs; every short-term rebound is currently sold.
- Dogecoin (DOGE). DOGE rejected the 20-day EMA ($0.13), giving bears a chance to initiate a new downtrend with targets below $0.12.
- Cardano (ADA). ADA failed to hold above $0.37, with bears attempting to renew pressure, potentially leading to tests of lower levels.
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH). BCH was unable to sustain a bounce from the 20-day EMA ($570); if sellers break this zone, the price may fall to the 50-day SMA.
- Chainlink (LINK). LINK rejected the 20-day EMA ($12.91); a break of local support could push the pair down to stronger levels near $10.94.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE). HYPE's bounce did not reach the 20-day EMA ($27.09), and bears will try to push the price below $22.19 amid continued weak demand.
Why This Matters
If you mine in Russia and operate between one and a thousand devices, current market behavior directly affects your profitability: price weakness and declining asset demand usually reduce revenue from coin sales. Meanwhile, falling active addresses and negative ETF inflows indicate weakening buying-side market strength, increasing the likelihood of volatile pullbacks and revisions of local support levels.
Even if you do not plan to sell mined cryptocurrency immediately, understanding key support and resistance levels helps make informed decisions about holding, selling, and allocating mining capacity. This is especially important amid high competition in the hash market and changing coin demand.
What to Do?
- Monitor key levels: keep $84,000 for BTC and SMA/EMA resistances for ETH and altcoins in mind. This aids in planning sell or hold points.
- Optimize operations: during prolonged price weakness, consider reducing load or redistributing equipment work to hours with cheaper electricity to preserve margins.
- Manage risks: set rules for partial profit-taking and stop-losses to avoid selling everything during short-term dips while protecting your budget.
- Watch flows and address activity: changes in 30-day SMA for ETFs and active addresses signal participant sentiment and can influence decisions on selling or accumulating.
- Plan maintenance and reserves: use low-profitability periods for equipment upkeep and building financial cushions in case of price drops.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean that the 30-day SMA of ETF inflows turned negative? It means that over the past 30 days, net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs have been negative on average — more funds left these ETFs than entered. This signal typically reflects reduced institutional and short-term interest.
How important is the $84,000 level for Bitcoin? The article notes that $84,000 acts as key support: a bounce from this level could lead to stabilization within a range, while a break below it could open the way for deeper declines.
What does the drop of the 30-day SMA of active addresses to 807,000 indicate? This decline points to reduced network activity over the medium 30-day period, suggesting lower participation by users and traders — a factor that increases the risk of weak demand during price attempts to rise.